Us Politics · resolved market
Will 50-100k federal employees accept the buyout?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4616f95d0646b9410ac44f38a47992cd1c9f054ce58238250c7374c0c080e469
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,282
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,398
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,282 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cfb…86d5backed Yes | 29c | 3,420$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,419.6 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 51c | 1,942$982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.16 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 30c | 1,655$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,155.44 | 80 | 57.5%46 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed No | 76c | 1,352$1,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,032.79 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbe…9bd8backed No | 2c | 1,323$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dde…94c3backed Yes | 29c | 1,322$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.94 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked No | 1c | 1,209$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ff…c93bbacked Yes | 25c | 1,182$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$881.82 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 39c | 926.04$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.36 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed Yes | 20c | 898.98$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.68 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa6…78e8backed No | 4c | 789.43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 18c | 531.42$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.52 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed No | 12c | 520$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.64 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca9…be8cbacked No | 4c | 470.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked Yes | 67c | 463.75$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.62 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 74c | 456$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.44 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3eb…3c47backed Yes | 48c | 405.41$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 20c | 376.94$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.53 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Yes | 28c | 353.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.79 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31fc…4e30backed No | 73c | 335.64$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.02 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5838…3636backed Yes | 28c | 325$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.2 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 29c | 324.35$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.11 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…7112backed Yes | 23c | 323.77$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.07 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +7.0wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x247d…7d27backed No | 35c | 289.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 27c | 281.79$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.67 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes | 24c | 249.82$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.86 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x249a…f15bbacked Yes | 28c | 248.56$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.56 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 40c | 242.63$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.22 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba80…8f07backed No | 4c | 231$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 15c | 215.35$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.59 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 75c | 212.82$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.82 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf007…10b4backed Yes | 67c | 210$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.9 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 72c | 210$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 77c | 200$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x296b…2cf2backed Yes | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 15c | 196.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…9862backed Yes | 65c | 182.36$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.97 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +38%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked No | 71c | 180$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.8 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53a8…6689backed Yes | 69c | 175.12$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.12 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 65c | 160.28$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.3 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 68c | 156.93$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.29 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Yes | 40c | 148$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.8 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f0…3213backed Yes | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8356…7ad1backed Yes | 76c | 131.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd2…e163backed Yes | 75c | 129.67$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3d…2adbbacked Yes | 41c | 126.28$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.51 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 54c | 110.96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.24 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed Yes | 65c | 108.12$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.12 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked Yes | 55c | 103.39$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.46 | 43 | 86%37 W · 6 L | +8.4wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x70a8…9105backed No | 33c | 102$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91d…a524backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 22c | 96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.77 | 170 | 21.2%36 W · 134 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34a4…4cc7backed Yes | 24c | 95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.91 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…1b68backed No | 73c | 87.82$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.39 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…018abacked Yes | 48c | 85.49$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.45 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.27per pick | 43cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 54c | 82.68$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.74 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc57e…7348backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…81dbbacked Yes | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.22per pick | 68cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…6db3backed No | 31c | 74.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4f…2ce5backed Yes | 70c | 71.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…ab69backed Yes | 70c | 69.97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed Yes | 43c | 67.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab01…25d2backed Yes | 70c | 66.44$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 69c | 63.52$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec4e…2d95backed No | 31c | 62.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed No | 28c | 52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 177 | 13%23 W · 154 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x413d…0db8backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0783…c1bbbacked Yes | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c8…e402backed Yes | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 44c | 43.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b0…cf4dbacked No | 43c | 36.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x469c…ee0fbacked Yes | 63c | 34.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dd…8121backed Yes | 44c | 33.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 35cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ca…9d85backed Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49a2…fc3fbacked Yes | 32c | 31.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +224.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa258…6182backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…4fbebacked No | 55c | 30.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1370…422dbacked Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb977…3779backed No | 34c | 29.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdccc…3ac3backed Yes | 79c | 27.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed Yes | 68c | 26.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfab4…4c19backed Yes | 57c | 26.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 36cpaid | +130.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Yes | 40c | 26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb9…821ebacked Yes | 67c | 24.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 72c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 148 | 43.2%64 W · 84 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b2d5backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac6…befcbacked Yes | 78c | 19.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5c8…d64abacked Yes | 72c | 17.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed2d…ed75backed Yes | 68c | 16.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf343…793cbacked Yes | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 50-100k federal employees accept the buyout?this page
- Will 100-150k federal employees accept the buyout?No won
- Will 150-200k federal employees accept the buyout?No won
- Will 200-250k federal employees accept the buyout?No won
- Will 250-300k federal employees accept the buyout?No won
- Will 300-350k federal employees accept the buyout?No won
- Will 350-400k federal employees accept the buyout?No won
- Will 400-450k federal employees accept the buyout?No won
- Will 450-500k federal employees accept the buyout?No won
- Will 500k or more federal employees accept the buyout?No won
- Will fewer than 50k federal employees accept the buyout?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.