WNBA · resolved market
WNBA: Lynx vs. Mercury Game 2
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb21e70993f8eeb8ae917782c54eb3f7f9ed295e3fcb41bd56d8dd55ac95a5373
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lynxof Lynx, Mercury
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,727
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,657
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,727 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3168…6734backed Mercury | 15c | 9,482$1,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,393.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd057…ae9fbacked Mercury | 11c | 5,100$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Lynx | 80c | 4,484$3,576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$907.98 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Mercury | 20c | 3,621$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.43 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd028…75f5backed Lynx | 79c | 3,313$2,616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.95 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Lynx | 79c | 2,201$1,748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Mercury | 20c | 556.11$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 40cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd76f…a44cbacked Mercury | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb35b…fc08backed Lynx | 71c | 500$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…50e2backed Mercury | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…69d7backed Lynx | 79c | 489$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe76b…0956backed Mercury | 21c | 489$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b6…bb1cbacked Mercury | 27c | 376.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked Mercury | 18c | 351.06$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf54…676abacked Mercury | 22c | 327.51$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Mercury | 19c | 311$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.26 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3b…e948backed Mercury | 36c | 304.7$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…63e5backed Mercury | 26c | 300$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf587…e3b2backed Mercury | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb492…b7edbacked Lynx | 68c | 269.12$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e7e…d35cbacked Lynx | 79c | 250$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bfb…fb18backed Mercury | 21c | 250$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5b…6759backed Lynx | 79c | 229.99$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.1 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +158.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Mercury | 20c | 202.65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.53 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…d834backed Lynx | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a4…02b1backed Lynx | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked Mercury | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c7…053ebacked Mercury | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…5679backed Mercury | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Lynx | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f1d5backed Mercury | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a45…df65backed Mercury | 42c | 193.89$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed3e…21a8backed Lynx | 73c | 193$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.39 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +153.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Mercury | 20c | 134.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2162…7b75backed Mercury | 20c | 131.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5697…cddfbacked Lynx | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96fa…baadbacked Mercury | 22c | 70.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a55…9f42backed Lynx | 80c | 67.45$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d2…cb43backed Lynx | 80c | 63.58$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Mercury | 20c | 61.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc436…15cfbacked Mercury | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22bf…782dbacked Lynx | 79c | 36.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02f8…6cb4backed Lynx | 80c | 29.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…eec9backed Lynx | 80c | 26.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a79…ba5fbacked Lynx | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2686…7a67backed Lynx | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…f6d2backed Lynx | 80c | 13.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ae…3327backed Lynx | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x706e…6965backed Lynx | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8b…c87bbacked Lynx | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e4…1d1ebacked Lynx | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.