World Politics · resolved market
Will the Greens win the most seats in the next Ontario Parliamentary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x699480773de935bcc4c9b5e30867cce59eb1af43f9a94112e040ffa50df7ce44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,463,735
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $597,348
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,463,735 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 49,000$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9b…dfcdbacked Yes | 0c | 44,654$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8e…ecbdbacked Yes | 0c | 43,690$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5c…b78cbacked Yes | 0c | 43,500$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x405b…bb56backed Yes | 0c | 42,870$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x313b…819ebacked Yes | 0c | 42,560$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ef…4c92backed Yes | 0c | 42,470$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…ed89backed Yes | 0c | 42,410$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe716…afb3backed Yes | 0c | 42,380$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdea…102ebacked Yes | 0c | 42,140$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x925b…3f12backed Yes | 0c | 41,570$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x627a…d5afbacked Yes | 0c | 41,440$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6cc…6cc5backed Yes | 0c | 41,300$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d2c…9576backed Yes | 0c | 40,880$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d7…fff6backed Yes | 0c | 40,840$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc967…e9a0backed Yes | 0c | 40,760$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf6…5e27backed Yes | 0c | 40,690$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6896…79c1backed Yes | 0c | 40,610$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2885…c59fbacked Yes | 0c | 40,340$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa399…b377backed Yes | 0c | 40,230$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5596…755abacked Yes | 0c | 40,210$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9f…1cf0backed Yes | 0c | 39,360$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb35b…fc08backed Yes | 0c | 20,020$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 15,032$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe890…5d71backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c4…b0dcbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe5…ed49backed Yes | 0c | 6,234$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9de9…2a2abacked Yes | 0c | 6,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Greens win the most seats in the next Ontario Parliamentary election?this page
- Will the Liberals win the most seats in the next Ontario Parliamentary election?No won
- Will the New Democrats win the most seats in the next Ontario Parliamentary election?No won
- Will the Progressive Conservatives win the most seats in the next Ontario Parliamentary election?Yes won
- Will the another party win the most seats in the next Ontario Parliamentary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.