Music · resolved market
Will "Not Like Us" by Kendrick Lamar win Best Rap Song?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a7f586c42fa69c573faf4c4f735d7994168fa258bb08511b2e412e03e13523c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,174
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,237
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,174 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb35b…fc08backed No | 1c | 30,300$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…2e07backed No | 11c | 2,130$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed No | 11c | 1,363$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.37 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 1c | 1,100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5643…5390backed No | 14c | 609.7$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.87 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed No | 12c | 256$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…126cbacked No | 11c | 196.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 9c | 184.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b9…c8c1backed No | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc5…f5e1backed No | 11c | 105$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae36…0dc6backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +80.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 65c | 35.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Not Like Us" by Kendrick Lamar win Best Rap Song?this page
- Will "Asteroids" by Rapsody featuring Hit-Boy win Best Rap Song?No won
- Will "Carnival" by Kanye West and Ty Dolla $ign featuring Rich the Kid and Playboi Carti win Best Rap Song?No won
- Will "Like That" by Future and Metro Boomin featuring Kendrick Lamar win Best Rap Song?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.