World Politics · resolved market
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe09273ceb4550ce1859d72066165f33feb4dca50a1f90bc7bf9c22d1521465e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,846
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,851
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,846 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x55f3…cadabacked No | 75c | 2,968$2,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,239.03 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b1…9124backed No | 78c | 2,598$2,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,015.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3f…a2b7backed Yes | 40c | 1,888$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,137.95 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +124.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 17c | 1,684$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.27 | 182 | 16.5%30 W · 152 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b21…41fabacked Yes | 27c | 1,624$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,193.02 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 38cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd7…9c85backed No | 66c | 1,603$1,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,061.19 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x983f…fd5ebacked Yes | 26c | 1,565$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,162.61 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +87%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…7b80backed Yes | 26c | 1,329$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.19 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…eb64backed Yes | 45c | 1,321$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.91 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 26c | 1,154$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.18 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 22c | 1,134$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.41 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe3…07c3backed No | 62c | 789.58$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…621cbacked Yes | 42c | 783.8$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9620…4260backed No | 67c | 550.26$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14d7…db87backed Yes | 62c | 484.66$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.66 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +56%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa855…5fbabacked No | 71c | 421.29$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…17b7backed Yes | 20c | 400$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.39per pick | 32cpaid | +246.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…a66cbacked Yes | 33c | 396.37$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.57 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2341…0e3abacked Yes | 28c | 360$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.6 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed No | 21c | 315.18$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.19 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd0…0e01backed Yes | 25c | 300$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0403…a7eebacked Yes | 28c | 300$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.43per pick | 37cpaid | +329.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff8d…2898backed Yes | 20c | 298.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.38 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +162.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0852…9179backed Yes | 68c | 296.05$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…ef79backed No | 76c | 267.28$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed No | 72c | 258.6$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.3 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x754d…6741backed Yes | 27c | 243.24$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.38 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbd…f6c0backed Yes | 38c | 236.08$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 32cpaid | +162.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce36…48cabacked Yes | 63c | 223.22$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.22 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…71aebacked No | 77c | 203.11$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.23 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 62cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8bda…5e13backed Yes | 65c | 184.82$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.69 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe56b…2a2dbacked Yes | 59c | 169.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc749…779abacked No | 68c | 159.67$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dde…94c3backed Yes | 69c | 156.74$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.87 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 30c | 144.81$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.29 | 172 | 27.9%48 W · 124 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…d9a1backed No | 40c | 144$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.06 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c5e…feb4backed Yes | 28c | 141.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +253.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 61c | 139.51$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.21 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e1…6566backed Yes | 78c | 128.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 75c | 128.34$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.08 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfad…fa05backed Yes | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 22c | 123.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e45…3662backed Yes | 77c | 118.16$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d7…c909backed Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.49per pick | 26cpaid | +272.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…33f6backed Yes | 33c | 90.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 33c | 90.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76d2…6369backed No | 70c | 87.04$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed Yes | 50c | 86.11$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53dc…98a1backed No | 70c | 79.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc3…46f9backed Yes | 24c | 63.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…73acbacked Yes | 80c | 60.61$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7097…8564backed No | 72c | 56.56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c9…fcc9backed No | 72c | 50.53$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 67cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c42…62fabacked Yes | 30c | 50.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +235.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd704…cf56backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x300d…ab3dbacked Yes | 49c | 49.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…47ffbacked No | 62c | 44.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 28c | 41.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3edd…4edfbacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb61…2528backed Yes | 64c | 37.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2158…3e91backed Yes | 60c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed No | 77c | 34.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fe…1a96backed Yes | 34c | 29.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9442…a0e4backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed Yes | 56c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed Yes | 56c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 51 | 74.5%38 W · 13 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a88…fd7fbacked Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 68cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd873…236dbacked No | 74c | 24.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf7…bccdbacked No | 48c | 20.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x669b…5627backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd232…2c37backed No | 77c | 15.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lecornu out as French PM by December 31?this page
- Lecornu out as French PM by October 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.