World Politics · resolved market
Lecornu out as French PM by October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa04663056049631155f584c232495e7bba3555931e3a5eb632889f645607f472
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,877
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,510
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,877 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 12c | 2,730$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,399.24 | 304 | 33.6%102 W · 202 L | +18.5wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0403…a7eebacked Yes | 7c | 2,500$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,316.78 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.43per pick | 37cpaid | +329.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 10c | 2,302$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,083.15 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…7b80backed Yes | 16c | 2,062$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,732.75 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 43c | 1,891$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,072.61 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x14d7…db87backed Yes | 22c | 1,382$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,082.29 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +56%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Yes | 74c | 1,357$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.35 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 9c | 1,342$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,227.13 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3cba…b9acbacked Yes | 15c | 1,330$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,130.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 27cpaid | +178.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x983f…fd5ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,257$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,166.56 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +87%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 17c | 1,006$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$835.8 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…eb64backed Yes | 31c | 949.86$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.26 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 18c | 880.2$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.81 | 197 | 42.6%84 W · 113 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c2…1b0dbacked Yes | 12c | 800.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +300.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3f…a2b7backed Yes | 29c | 751.93$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.93 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +124.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd72d…bce1backed Yes | 44c | 749.11$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +125%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcc…12a6backed No | 74c | 631.89$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 70cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 6c | 600$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 21c | 582.95$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.54 | 114 | 35.1%40 W · 74 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8918…8824backed No | 55c | 550.19$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed Yes | 56c | 535.23$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.23 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed Yes | 35c | 525.87$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.7 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66d4…ae10backed Yes | 7c | 499.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.99 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +120.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 436.2$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.43 | 1,437 | 10.2%147 W · 1,290 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8600…c686backed Yes | 14c | 400.82$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +614.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2341…0e3abacked Yes | 13c | 379.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.09 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…a66cbacked Yes | 14c | 349.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.57 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce36…48cabacked Yes | 37c | 272.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.34 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked No | 57c | 261.71$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a42…c524backed Yes | 45c | 261.48$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.81 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.75 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89a3…70c0backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +283.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 179 | 21.2%38 W · 141 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bda…5e13backed Yes | 47c | 217.82$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.73 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbd…f6c0backed Yes | 16c | 207.14$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 32cpaid | +162.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…17b7backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.39per pick | 32cpaid | +246.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 48c | 199.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | -7.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc39d…4891backed Yes | 10c | 199.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.49 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +131.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb244…7ed9backed Yes | 51c | 196.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56da…fca2backed Yes | 14c | 180.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.43 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +295.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a88…fd7fbacked Yes | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 68cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 45c | 149.97$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.15 | 182 | 16.5%30 W · 152 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 14c | 146.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.28 | 203 | 28.6%58 W · 145 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe56b…2a2dbacked Yes | 22c | 145.32$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.7 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3d…efffbacked Yes | 44c | 143.85$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.67 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 51c | 126$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.26 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…5446backed Yes | 42c | 122.87$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +118.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb72c…653ebacked Yes | 59c | 122.03$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.03 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd8cc…5130backed Yes | 11c | 109.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.65 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +213.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb7…93c7backed No | 48c | 104.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x045d…185dbacked No | 54c | 104.38$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…7cc9backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.49per pick | 26cpaid | +272.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa1…96f6backed No | 74c | 99.7$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 60c | 96.46$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.14 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de2…9e23backed Yes | 58c | 82.79$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 44c | 78.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 450 | 21.1%95 W · 355 L | -21.9wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…0155backed Yes | 17c | 71.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +103.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x754d…6741backed Yes | 14c | 71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…e036backed Yes | 53c | 63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.77 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +29%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -5.1wins | -0.18per pick | 63cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…8849backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 55c | 43.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 172 | 27.9%48 W · 124 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed No | 53c | 43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23c9…d9b4backed Yes | 54c | 37.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f24…513ebacked Yes | 47c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked Yes | 47c | 30.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 50 | 72%36 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f16…b3c8backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +107.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe402…76c9backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lecornu out as French PM by October 31?this page
- Lecornu out as French PM by December 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.