Weather · resolved market
Will between 12 and 15 named storms occur in the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1f49adea3e64963561b9f8162194712e7db9345543659a2ede9e5d8c53c8bac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $651,273
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $334,600
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $651,273 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa015…c0fdbacked No | 65c | 56,009$36,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,405.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf76…5381backed Yes | 35c | 56,009$19,603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,405.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc7…5873backed Yes | 34c | 36,265$12,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,934.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e95…d495backed No | 66c | 36,265$23,935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,934.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 1c | 5,100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 155 | 0%0 W · 155 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 2c | 1,300$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…d790backed No | 2c | 1,235$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 39c | 1,000$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.62 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 66c | 789.56$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 604.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53cb…fc91backed Yes | 28c | 576.32$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 23c | 526$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.23 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 33c | 442$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.1 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 75c | 416.24$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.76 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 7c | 283.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 27c | 265.09$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.17 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4db…b966backed Yes | 63c | 219.2$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed Yes | 42c | 150$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed Yes | 34c | 140$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.8 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 24c | 138.08$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed No | 65c | 137.91$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.82 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dde…94c3backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5085…d8a4backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6711…7d95backed No | 18c | 99.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4c…3486backed Yes | 34c | 75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92d5…a491backed Yes | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…8ddfbacked No | 64c | 70.66$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 41c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…ce9dbacked No | 58c | 65.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Yes | 45c | 60.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e5…f261backed Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd737…71bbbacked Yes | 29c | 52.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +88.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e2…25f7backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked Yes | 29c | 44.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.94 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa823…851fbacked Yes | 46c | 44.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39df…644bbacked Yes | 41c | 33.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89bc…dddcbacked Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0db2…048abacked No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will between 12 and 15 named storms occur in the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?this page
- Will between 16 and 19 named storms occur in the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?No won
- Will between 20 and 23 named storms occur in the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?No won
- Will less than 12 named storms occur in the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?No won
- Will more than 23 named storms occur in the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.