Weather · resolved market
Will less than 12 named storms occur in the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6d5bf72a600cb8e9db8bfd8614b1fbf4e487518204ccf004cde27302f9c9534
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,389
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,034
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,389 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c94…5b86backed Yes | 5c | 1,027$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.61 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe847…fb8bbacked Yes | 20c | 665.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 7c | 442$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa823…851fbacked Yes | 9c | 390.29$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 6c | 350$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -54%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 12c | 318.18$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a9…d956backed No | 79c | 304.62$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 7c | 299.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 296.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 6c | 223.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…8ddfbacked Yes | 10c | 205.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc30c…6509backed Yes | 11c | 201.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Yes | 17c | 201.22$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89bc…dddcbacked No | 77c | 157.84$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.84 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 8c | 154.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa08b…77b0backed Yes | 13c | 134.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…b5c7backed Yes | 8c | 131.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed Yes | 15c | 105$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb28a…6d4abacked Yes | 11c | 101$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 13cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e2…25f7backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 21c | 74.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe5…5788backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 28c | 40.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed No | 79c | 28.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 68c | 21.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will less than 12 named storms occur in the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?this page
- Will between 12 and 15 named storms occur in the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?Yes won
- Will between 16 and 19 named storms occur in the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?No won
- Will between 20 and 23 named storms occur in the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?No won
- Will more than 23 named storms occur in the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.