Weather · resolved market
Will between 16 and 19 named storms occur in the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6dad028d63ebc256a4d6ea300ab588b2b8bafdc8e148b82543782af73f76bb19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $215,467
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,891
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $215,467 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 3c | 8,377$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.89 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,632$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 2c | 4,753$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 13c | 3,268$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.86 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x138c…d2c7backed Yes | 16c | 2,756$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.9 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,414$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 1,874$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 83 | 3.6%3 W · 80 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 17c | 1,672$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.01 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b7…a45ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,590$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f6…46eabacked Yes | 2c | 1,500$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1432…3d2ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,489$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf5…3687backed Yes | 13c | 1,421$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.31 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d27…4f3cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,364$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa16f…b703backed Yes | 1c | 1,346$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed Yes | 13c | 1,300$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.89 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c9…8174backed Yes | 2c | 1,217$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…12b2backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -93.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 2c | 929.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc30c…6509backed No | 77c | 874.3$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa823…851fbacked Yes | 7c | 755.84$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db2…048abacked Yes | 19c | 675.03$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.89 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 7c | 600$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6c…00b9backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 28c | 442$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.76 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 12c | 416.24$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.13 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 62c | 365.04$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.69 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefa6…d493backed Yes | 18c | 271.8$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0dde…94c3backed Yes | 10c | 244.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 214.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 16c | 203.64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf812…494bbacked No | 62c | 191.28$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…0c9abacked Yes | 6c | 172$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +5.5wins | +0.22per pick | 54cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 67c | 166.67$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b24…2440backed Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed Yes | 27c | 162.9$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.71 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057d…4d1fbacked Yes | 11c | 105.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7c…c08ebacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 72c | 82.57$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 70c | 73$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 94 | 59.6%56 W · 38 L | +9.8wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 77c | 69.52$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4db…b966backed Yes | 35c | 68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b95…0190backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…e1a1backed Yes | 34c | 66.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddd6…6682backed Yes | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 76c | 63$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a73…28cfbacked Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…559cbacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -71%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked Yes | 40c | 44.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1b…52f7backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -57%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59c8…b623backed Yes | 39c | 30.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e2…25f7backed No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will between 16 and 19 named storms occur in the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?this page
- Will between 12 and 15 named storms occur in the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?Yes won
- Will between 20 and 23 named storms occur in the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?No won
- Will less than 12 named storms occur in the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?No won
- Will more than 23 named storms occur in the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.