Middle East · resolved market
Israel announces ceasefire by Sunday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6432b6412ff13dfcf6f7d195b1d1594f50ecbd6ea92e8cc0b8de44b9fa8f1e27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $530,532
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $544,842
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $530,532 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf34…8816backed No | 13c | 53,403$7,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,115.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8e…37e3backed No | 0c | 31,667$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x095f…41b7backed No | 1c | 25,013$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ea…8caabacked No | 0c | 24,217$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.65 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbabe…ee53backed No | 8c | 18,965$1,513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,512.93 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e1…a5c4backed No | 1c | 18,961$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e65…a223backed No | 1c | 12,601$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8177…73cabacked No | 1c | 12,506$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf43a…cafcbacked No | 0c | 10,190$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 15cpaid | +46%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 5c | 9,158$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.8 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0333…3b1dbacked No | 1c | 7,627$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22e9…cb9cbacked No | 1c | 6,246$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeebf…065ebacked No | 5c | 5,362$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1c…5d20backed No | 1c | 5,232$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 0c | 4,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x772a…c9f3backed No | 3c | 3,798$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2e…2ae3backed No | 0c | 3,650$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ea31backed No | 9c | 3,402$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.82 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 13c | 3,144$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.12 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df3…bbadbacked No | 4c | 2,732$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.68 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9de…0dc5backed No | 2c | 2,603$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc26d…64b8backed No | 1c | 2,567$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 8c | 2,500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x664d…aa7dbacked No | 1c | 2,400$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x092f…18acbacked No | 1c | 2,199$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead4…c2f2backed No | 1c | 1,927$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…0220backed No | 8c | 1,812$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.52 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 11c | 1,700$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.98 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c4…43e8backed No | 1c | 1,610$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +434.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4707…7e5bbacked No | 2c | 1,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00ea…f801backed No | 3c | 1,500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb78e…30e3backed No | 14c | 1,327$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.24 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +106%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked No | 12c | 1,252$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.53 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9ef3backed No | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…8facbacked No | 3c | 1,119$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed No | 9c | 1,108$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.7 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed No | 3c | 1,007$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca93…05c6backed No | 4c | 1,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb29…573fbacked No | 4c | 920.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked No | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x725b…389ebacked No | 12c | 823.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb678…f74dbacked No | 4c | 767.63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa8…d94fbacked No | 14c | 730.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -48%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae4…4f84backed No | 14c | 726.41$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e8…a0fabacked No | 14c | 685.71$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…511bbacked No | 8c | 649.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.23 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 22cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 8c | 633.61$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.69 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 16c | 619.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8992…1807backed No | 2c | 550$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb899…388abacked No | 3c | 479.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23c0…564cbacked No | 7c | 416.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c47…9b02backed No | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b2…4e0cbacked No | 13c | 374.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.6wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed No | 13c | 303.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.91 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 25cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3adf…d8b0backed No | 12c | 286.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked No | 13c | 284.06$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0b…eb6dbacked No | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…7592backed No | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97fb…02eabacked No | 17c | 247.51$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked No | 17c | 234$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.39per pick | 41cpaid | +201.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 14c | 226.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -64%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 13c | 219.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 136 | 29.4%40 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2daf…c1d4backed No | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 6c | 195.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x813e…c1f9backed No | 10c | 183.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48ae…2324backed No | 27c | 172.35$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c28…b539backed No | 8c | 158.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dde…94c3backed Yes | 74c | 153.17$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.49 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x838c…5252backed No | 13c | 129.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…548fbacked No | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5a…917ebacked No | 13c | 110$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d45…020fbacked No | 10c | 109.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c51…f8febacked No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x969c…314cbacked No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -58%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…86b5backed No | 12c | 86.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…7205backed No | 19c | 69.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x013b…c3ddbacked No | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.