MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66205c4ef3048ecabc5ee21f04436fc2b8dbd705a55a03fd12ab94ca82269634
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,399
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,997
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,399 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x927c…6633backed New York Yankees | 55c | 25,305$13,991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,990.5 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 14,396$6,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,899.63 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 58c | 13,652$7,861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,791.58 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86f4…bd70backed New York Yankees | 52c | 8,498$4,413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,413.33 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 48c | 2,703$1,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,403.34 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a7…dc87backed New York Yankees | 53c | 2,400$1,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,269.55 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 2,206$1,409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.52 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3234…8b1abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 1,333$869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.21 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed New York Yankees | 34c | 1,124$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.13 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 994.28$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.09 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Toronto Blue Jays | 66c | 888$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.92 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed New York Yankees | 30c | 864.72$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.45 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed New York Yankees | 29c | 843.54$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.01 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 47c | 835.6$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.93 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Toronto Blue Jays | 48c | 591.21$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Toronto Blue Jays | 67c | 398$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.34 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 51c | 367.57$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.53 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Toronto Blue Jays | 68c | 348.16$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.46 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Blue Jays | 50c | 285.65$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.91 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked New York Yankees | 46c | 277.27$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Toronto Blue Jays | 47c | 241.1$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.78 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…df9bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed New York Yankees | 31c | 194.68$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.18 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked New York Yankees | 49c | 180.66$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.99 | 587 | 46%270 W · 317 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked New York Yankees | 51c | 161.52$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.38 | 1,911 | 53.1%1,014 W · 897 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Toronto Blue Jays | 47c | 151$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.28 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x003f…3805backed New York Yankees | 21c | 123.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 105.12$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.71 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Toronto Blue Jays | 75c | 105$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Toronto Blue Jays | 78c | 84.03$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed New York Yankees | 22c | 71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed New York Yankees | 27c | 55.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 3,456 | 51.2%1,771 W · 1,685 L | +107.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 66c | 52.27$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 1,013 | 50.3%510 W · 503 L | +51.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Toronto Blue Jays | 66c | 45.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Toronto Blue Jays | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 75c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…639dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 66c | 40.91$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 309 | 60.2%186 W · 123 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 68c | 39.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Toronto Blue Jays | 68c | 39.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a96…b71dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 66c | 36.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Toronto Blue Jays | 66c | 29.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 455 | 50.3%229 W · 226 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Toronto Blue Jays | 58c | 28.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed New York Yankees | 38c | 26.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 6,302 | 48.3%3,041 W · 3,261 L | +181.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76d2…99a6backed New York Yankees | 59c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 66c | 21.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 68c | 19.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 406 | 58.4%237 W · 169 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Toronto Blue Jays | 68c | 19.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 52c | 19.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)this page
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York YankeesNew York Yankees won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 4.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York YankeesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.