MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc40c29c38c154d03ca0b012101c052ab605a34f700920fbbd223a73c5d2943da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $287,921
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $286,948
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $287,921 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Under | 56c | 205,655$115,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90,488.16 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Over | 44c | 200,000$88,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88,000 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a7…4a1dbacked Under | 58c | 62,686$36,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,363.89 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 42c | 49,493$20,788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,788.42 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 42c | 4,882$2,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,051.36 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 43c | 4,035$1,755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,755.2 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 44c | 2,548$1,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,122.54 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 54c | 2,304$1,237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,066.94 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…e8c9backed Over | 48c | 2,083$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 349 | 42.7%149 W · 200 L | -19.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 47c | 2,048$963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$962.56 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 26c | 1,573$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.28 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 45c | 1,536$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.67 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 31c | 1,505$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.4 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 46c | 1,091$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.16 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 48c | 1,069$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.12 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 44c | 1,032$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.73 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 44c | 927.2$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.97 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 52c | 889$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.72 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 53c | 872$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.1 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 54c | 693$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.61 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 44c | 645.9$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.67 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 76c | 602.59$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.64 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 23c | 503.26$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.75 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 48c | 443.85$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.05 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 57c | 405.47$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.36 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b3…33efbacked Under | 56c | 355.15$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.15 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 28c | 313.77$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.65 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab7…6978backed Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 146 | 43.2%63 W · 83 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…f8bdbacked Under | 56c | 267.86$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.86 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…d3aebacked Over | 32c | 223.28$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.45 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -8.6wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -52%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x79e0…7d6fbacked Over | 8c | 216.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 47c | 200$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 72c | 187$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.24 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Over | 28c | 177.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.28 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 44c | 170.45$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 44c | 155.5$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.42 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb361…7348backed Under | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…68b6backed Over | 47c | 142.74$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.09 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Over | 27c | 136.11$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.65 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Over | 44c | 135$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 450 | 45.8%206 W · 244 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bb…2753backed Under | 57c | 131.58$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.58 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 45c | 129.31$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.59 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 36c | 126.5$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 59c | 121$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.02 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1d…a01abacked Under | 56c | 116.91$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.91 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 65c | 116.21$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.23 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 43c | 106.62$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcada…df46backed Over | 44c | 102.02$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.89 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b89…9f72backed Under | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 107 | 56.1%60 W · 47 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 541 | 46.8%253 W · 288 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b46…ed67backed Under | 57c | 85.84$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.91 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 54c | 71.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.89 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 55c | 70.79$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.06 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Under | 55c | 70.06$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.73 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Over | 48c | 68.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.07 | 220 | 50.5%111 W · 109 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a46…2482backed Under | 54c | 68.5$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.51 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked Over | 46c | 64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 127 | 52%66 W · 61 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…1aa7backed Under | 57c | 62.55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 46c | 60.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed Under | 55c | 59.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 92 | 59.8%55 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Over | 45c | 58.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…62eabacked Under | 53c | 56.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 242 | 48.8%118 W · 124 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Under | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 412 | 49.5%204 W · 208 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…ae14backed Over | 44c | 48.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…7c0dbacked Over | 42c | 47.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 289 | 48.1%139 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 40c | 43.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…f3c5backed Under | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 53c | 38.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Under | 55c | 37.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 406 | 58.4%237 W · 169 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Under | 55c | 37.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb3…4a24backed Over | 44c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 100 | 52%52 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1b…aa71backed Under | 57c | 24.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Over | 45c | 22.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 99 | 45.5%45 W · 54 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York YankeesNew York Yankees won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 4.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York YankeesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.