MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92574e69fc8e524af76da7520015ba30c2e3f4fec9cea9d4c043daa7d83fc57e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,220
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,525
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,220 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Under | 45c | 22,222$9,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,223.39 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 55c | 6,656$3,661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,660.8 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 55c | 6,253$3,439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,438.82 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86f4…bd70backed Over | 45c | 3,682$1,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,639.72 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 55c | 3,579$1,974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,974.24 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 55c | 1,525$841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840.67 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 45c | 1,397$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.41 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 55c | 1,261$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.82 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 48c | 1,077$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 190 | 51.1%97 W · 93 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 44c | 820$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.72 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 65c | 537.33$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.8 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 62c | 477.36$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.75 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64e7…50d1backed Under | 48c | 403$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.57 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Over | 55c | 357.9$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.42 | 707 | 44.7%316 W · 391 L | -22.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Over | 33c | 332.17$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.54 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Over | 31c | 301.95$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.88 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 58c | 300.96$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.55 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 61c | 300$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.1 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 52c | 276.88$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.63 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Over | 56c | 273$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.88 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…f8bdbacked Over | 61c | 245.9$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 36c | 161.48$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.27 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 29c | 139.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.47 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked Over | 57c | 128$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.96 | 127 | 52%66 W · 61 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 52c | 118.58$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.66 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 40c | 110$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 56c | 105$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.91 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04a…7cffbacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 56c | 89.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.39 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 50c | 86.7$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.35 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Over | 50c | 85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 30c | 73.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 41c | 73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 51c | 72.74$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.42 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 21c | 52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…05a6backed Over | 37c | 47.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 56c | 45.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9412…730ebacked Over | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 58c | 36.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…de15backed Under | 64c | 20.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 171 | 60.8%104 W · 67 L | +11.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5this page
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York YankeesNew York Yankees won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 4.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York YankeesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.