MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3fc90814211a5e86bbca4203654427bba333ae3eda03d75212a75093d449ce49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Yankeesof New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,887
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,398
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,887 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed New York Yankees | 47c | 2,488$1,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,323.18 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 53c | 1,663$881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$881.39 | 366 | 48.9%179 W · 187 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed New York Yankees | 61c | 995.12$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.59 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed New York Yankees | 46c | 978.83$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.57 | 2,044 | 39.5%808 W · 1,236 L | -24.6wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Toronto Blue Jays | 53c | 888$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.64 | 874 | 53%463 W · 411 L | +16.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Yankees | 71c | 645$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.05 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Toronto Blue Jays | 24c | 554.27$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.13 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 29c | 491.5$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.53 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Toronto Blue Jays | 12c | 410.16$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.78 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 15c | 352.8$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed New York Yankees | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 285.76$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.79 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3255…ffb9backed New York Yankees | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 181 | 53.6%97 W · 84 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed New York Yankees | 68c | 214.19$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.59 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76c2…ab1bbacked New York Yankees | 46c | 206.52$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…0e95backed New York Yankees | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 145 | 45.5%66 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Toronto Blue Jays | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 1,445 | 50%723 W · 722 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Toronto Blue Jays | 29c | 197.12$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.15 | 282 | 45.7%129 W · 153 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 54c | 195$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.3 | 1,538 | 48.6%747 W · 791 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked New York Yankees | 49c | 182$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.82 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 667 | 48.7%325 W · 342 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed New York Yankees | 46c | 163.21$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.13 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Yankees | 61c | 157.98$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.1 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Toronto Blue Jays | 51c | 154.68$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.89 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b89…9f72backed New York Yankees | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 51c | 146.49$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.32 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 999 | 47.5%475 W · 524 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked New York Yankees | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 484 | 45.9%222 W · 262 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 308 | 48.1%148 W · 160 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…edcfbacked New York Yankees | 46c | 80$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked New York Yankees | 46c | 72$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed New York Yankees | 72c | 69.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed New York Yankees | 66c | 60.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed New York Yankees | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Toronto Blue Jays | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 838 | 54.7%458 W · 380 L | +29.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d3…02e4backed New York Yankees | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.3wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +94%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 29c | 49.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 216 | 50.5%109 W · 107 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 55c | 49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…de15backed New York Yankees | 64c | 47.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 201 | 61.2%123 W · 78 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 25c | 46.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 671 | 52.5%352 W · 319 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked New York Yankees | 65c | 46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 50c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3170…c6a0backed New York Yankees | 45c | 41.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.82 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 28c | 38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a89…eddabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x641d…eeedbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 53c | 34.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked New York Yankees | 66c | 31.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 1,947 | 53.1%1,033 W · 914 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b40…230cbacked New York Yankees | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +5.1wins | +0.39per pick | 53cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked New York Yankees | 45c | 29.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed New York Yankees | 60c | 20.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 250 | 53.2%133 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed New York Yankees | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…05a6backed New York Yankees | 66c | 18.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)this page
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York YankeesNew York Yankees won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 4.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York YankeesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.