MLB · resolved market
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38c07ca399f616b60637d1234830114a2d553574ae86fba1a52500bc9d4465f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Athleticsof Texas Rangers, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,656
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,712
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,656 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Texas Rangers | 29c | 1,089$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.33 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Athletics | 72c | 800$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.82 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa89…6cb6backed Texas Rangers | 35c | 767.46$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.61 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Athletics | 67c | 705.73$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.77 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Texas Rangers | 35c | 400$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Athletics | 65c | 219$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.65 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…df9bbacked Athletics | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…a6c0backed Athletics | 64c | 194.97$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.74 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Texas Rangers | 32c | 185.75$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.44 | 532 | 38.5%205 W · 327 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4214…4245backed Athletics | 64c | 151.56$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.56 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Texas Rangers | 36c | 150.86$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.46 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Texas Rangers | 22c | 132.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03de…4bfdbacked Texas Rangers | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Athletics | 65c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Athletics | 68c | 84.52$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.05 | 616 | 46.4%286 W · 330 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Athletics | 66c | 69.1$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Texas Rangers | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,828 | 54.1%989 W · 839 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Texas Rangers | 37c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Texas Rangers | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…caa6backed Texas Rangers | 43c | 42.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e8…a5f9backed Texas Rangers | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Athletics | 57c | 27.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…639dbacked Athletics | 65c | 18.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 309 | 60.2%186 W · 123 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Athletics | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)this page
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. AthleticsTexas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. AthleticsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.