MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83673b8dc290e697c2fc78ab6a72830fd9b712e9eecb0a975c769b51682cfaf6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,427
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,682
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,427 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4c8…8f5abacked Under | 42c | 7,970$3,327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,643.26 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 58c | 6,982$4,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,017.26 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb68…4ef3backed Under | 42c | 2,168$912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,255.7 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked Over | 46c | 2,141$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985 | 265 | 45.7%121 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 53c | 2,105$1,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,106.92 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 52c | 2,090$1,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,006.49 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 48c | 2,090$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.74 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 28c | 1,671$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.83 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…2e6dbacked Under | 43c | 1,496$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$856.49 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 49c | 1,151$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.29 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 71c | 997$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.05 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 58c | 921.99$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.76 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 58c | 920.2$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.72 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd2…14c2backed Over | 59c | 795.24$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.67 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee4f…c0f0backed Under | 46c | 600$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 57c | 465.68$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.44 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca08…08bdbacked Over | 53c | 400$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +42%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 58c | 376.47$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.37 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Under | 47c | 364.7$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.34 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddfc…cd9ebacked Under | 43c | 327.44$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.64 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 50c | 312.89$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.79 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dae…72febacked Over | 58c | 270.05$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.8 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 46c | 257.78$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.2 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Under | 46c | 252.38$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.13 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 60c | 251.83$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.92 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 42c | 250$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 46c | 221.72$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.73 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…5976backed Over | 54c | 215.37$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.3 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 50c | 200$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 58c | 181.57$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.31 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Under | 55c | 181.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.63 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e9…b2e0backed Under | 54c | 160$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.2 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 58c | 149.71$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.17 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 53c | 146.78$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.71 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6016…1ab5backed Under | 43c | 131.01$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.68 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…3447backed Over | 56c | 122.6$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.57 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 21c | 117$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 50c | 115.1$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.44 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 46c | 108.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 49c | 99.57$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.34 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 58c | 97.62$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.62 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 52c | 88.25$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.89 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 53c | 87.79$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 46c | 77.76$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.77 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Under | 47c | 75.44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.19 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 40c | 60.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5fd…6f17backed Over | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2d74…96b8backed Under | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Under | 50c | 57.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 406 | 58.4%237 W · 169 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Under | 50c | 57.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Over | 64c | 52.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6112…7a08backed Under | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Under | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7d…7161backed Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 35c | 42.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…5862backed Over | 35c | 41.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 52c | 40.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…caa6backed Over | 51c | 35.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5cf…7b4cbacked Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -8.9wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 42c | 34.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f20…5d31backed Under | 56c | 33.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 129 | 46.5%60 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b4…6855backed Under | 60c | 32.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Over | 55c | 30.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 253 | 55.7%141 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Under | 44c | 28.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03f8…99d0backed Under | 56c | 26.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…c89bbacked Under | 47c | 25.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 110 | 37.3%41 W · 69 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 52c | 22.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92dc…eb9dbacked Over | 52c | 22.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe935…3991backed Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6844…d538backed Under | 56c | 19.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 128 | 57%73 W · 55 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Athletics won
- Texas Rangers vs. AthleticsTexas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. AthleticsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.