TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Texas Rangers vs. Athletics

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Texas Rangersof Texas Rangers, Athletics
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$410,961
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$409,068

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $410,961 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 271 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3dfb…abafbacked Texas Rangers60c98,837$59,782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,054.911,41449.5%700 W · 714 L-4.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43ca…c219backed Athletics40c75,000$30,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,999.993135.5%11 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4bff…fc26backed Athletics39c69,314$27,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,032.5944446.8%208 W · 236 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf668…5c69backed Texas Rangers60c33,333$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,333.335276.9%40 W · 12 L+11.8wins+0.23per pick54cpaid+45.6%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xc807…c12bbacked Texas Rangers58c17,139$9,987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,151.6550553.5%270 W · 235 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Athletics43c15,185$6,528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,527.85,47150.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L+21.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x974c…3269backed Athletics40c14,537$5,815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,814.81952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+26.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Athletics26c13,285$3,468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,467.53,04148%1,461 W · 1,580 L-16.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Texas Rangers77c12,273$9,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,821.5711,51952.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L+213.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Athletics41c11,623$4,752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,752.093,50951%1,789 W · 1,720 L+53.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2728…4f96backed Athletics40c10,863$4,345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,345.2653448.9%261 W · 273 L-1.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Texas Rangers71c10,647$7,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,036.948,59452.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L+508.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked Athletics45c10,000$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,499.9854051.1%276 W · 264 L+23.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Texas Rangers55c7,543$4,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,394.3592554.1%500 W · 425 L+23.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cae…a00abacked Texas Rangers57c7,385$4,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,199.362860.7%17 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+19.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Texas Rangers61c6,000$3,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,34050152.5%263 W · 238 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c03…522dbacked Athletics21c4,716$1,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,010.511723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-46.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xff94…8c4bbacked Athletics43c4,495$1,929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,929.11850%4 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c3c…e8c9backed Athletics45c4,444$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00035643.5%155 W · 201 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Texas Rangers56c4,406$2,467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,938.5415651.3%80 W · 76 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Texas Rangers65c4,261$2,763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,497.738,19246.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L+38.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Athletics40c3,456$1,391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,391.384,36847.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L-79.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Texas Rangers60c3,000$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2001,07848.1%518 W · 560 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe954…1ef1backed Texas Rangers56c2,727$1,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2003855.3%21 W · 17 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+16.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Athletics73c2,690$1,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,958.064,08757.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L+66.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Athletics58c2,404$1,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,400.8297044.9%436 W · 534 L-13.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb88…0e4cbacked Texas Rangers59c2,371$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$971.3811064.5%71 W · 39 L+7.7wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb68b…9b23backed Athletics41c2,370$972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971.522254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3061…dd00backed Athletics40c2,367$947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$946.661637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-22.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Athletics52c2,079$1,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,074.1582042.6%349 W · 471 L-12.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-17.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Athletics43c2,060$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$890.278,40347.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Texas Rangers60c1,866$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$746.41,40848.8%687 W · 721 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Texas Rangers30c1,865$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,313.161,00344.6%447 W · 556 L-23.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Texas Rangers58c1,733$1,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$727.8671044.5%316 W · 394 L-23.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x38fb…d07cbacked Athletics6c1,720$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73e8…cd6fbacked Texas Rangers55c1,604$882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721.9336648.9%179 W · 187 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Athletics39c1,600$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.9964752.4%339 W · 308 L+28.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Texas Rangers57c1,500$855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64562447.6%297 W · 327 L-2.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ba4…6de0backed Athletics23c1,499$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.5220945%94 W · 115 L-11.1wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Texas Rangers30c1,332$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$932.484,51548.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L-46.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x694d…e762backed Texas Rangers52c1,202$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.921369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+20.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Athletics42c1,127$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.756,99950.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L+2.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc480…937abacked Texas Rangers20c1,075$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86011129.7%33 W · 78 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f04…33f4backed Athletics75c1,055$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Athletics42c1,024$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.082,31151%1,179 W · 1,132 L+25.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Texas Rangers25c1,006$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$749.299,81946.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L+39.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea1b…ec19backed Texas Rangers61c1,000$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3902152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Texas Rangers24c1,000$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76094734.4%326 W · 621 L-0.7wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Texas Rangers61c974.2$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.9435056%196 W · 154 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20ad…307dbacked Athletics77c904.47$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.442152.4%11 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50c3…ace1backed Texas Rangers55c888$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.687453%463 W · 411 L+16.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b50…87fbbacked Texas Rangers57c873.23$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.492227.3%6 W · 16 L-3.7wins-0.17per pick44cpaid-39.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7f29…f03dbacked Texas Rangers23c869.57$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$669.5748145.3%218 W · 263 L-15.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b3…145dbacked Texas Rangers41c863.58$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513.5823155%127 W · 104 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf021…245ebacked Texas Rangers59c826.85$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.014461.4%27 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x54d0…8e20backed Texas Rangers61c819.67$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.6732656.7%185 W · 141 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Texas Rangers61c812.2$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.4110,97951.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L+139.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ff…3535backed Athletics6c808.7$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5180%0 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x05c5…6a69backed Athletics73c800.24$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.4650856.9%289 W · 219 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad54…006abacked Athletics48c722.29$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.758160.4%351 W · 230 L+30.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+9.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Athletics78c705$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.971253.4%380 W · 332 L+12.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ee0…d6a6backed Texas Rangers77c700$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16112264.8%79 W · 43 L+15.0wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+25.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x28ef…ff5ebacked Texas Rangers61c655.74$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.743154.8%17 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd04…c5e1backed Texas Rangers76c643.72$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.4911100%11 W · 0 L+2.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x02b5…2ff8backed Athletics40c625$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2504833.3%16 W · 32 L-7.7wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-33.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x4f18…1ae2backed Athletics40c600$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2402450%12 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Texas Rangers67c599.34$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.342,09351.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L+44.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f76…dcc9backed Texas Rangers67c555.11$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.5586948.4%421 W · 448 L+10.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed Athletics44c548.99$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.561,84849.6%917 W · 931 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9767…1a16backed Athletics43c546.51$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2352240.9%9 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-19.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Texas Rangers60c513.47$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.941,63549.3%806 W · 829 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Athletics43c504$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.1696553%511 W · 454 L+18.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Athletics45c500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22520836.5%76 W · 132 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcba5…cd88backed Texas Rangers62c483.87$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.8766250.2%332 W · 330 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Texas Rangers60c481.83$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.342,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Athletics43c465$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.951,14146.3%528 W · 613 L+36.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Texas Rangers63c460.97$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.634,18750.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L+94.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Texas Rangers68c450.09$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.841,52059.1%899 W · 621 L+78.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-1.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc576…027dbacked Athletics22c434.81$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.861723.5%4 W · 13 L-3.2wins-0.19per pick42cpaid-59.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x6f74…ccc5backed Texas Rangers47c426.6$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.94425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-47.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Texas Rangers71c414.96$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.752,17239.9%866 W · 1,306 L+1.6wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x009b…e769backed Texas Rangers62c403.23$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.2312262.3%76 W · 46 L+8.4wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x547f…2937backed Athletics41c402.89$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.1814156.7%80 W · 61 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d14…663fbacked Athletics41c389.99$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.916856.5%95 W · 73 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2465…5d84backed Athletics75c386$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.51,10679.6%880 W · 226 L+32.1wins+0.03per pick77cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b0f…b7aebacked Texas Rangers38c377.25$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.1553238.5%205 W · 327 L+2.2wins0.00per pick38cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e68…3772backed Texas Rangers35c375$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.7524947%117 W · 132 L+15.0wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-1.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Athletics71c369.99$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.395,14954.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L+231.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Athletics38c368.07$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.22,32949.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L+41.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Athletics25c341.83$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.0112,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68cb…0000backed Texas Rangers59c325.27$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.8249160.7%298 W · 193 L+41.8wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfaa9…c178backed Athletics75c308.13$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.12429.2%7 W · 17 L-6.7wins-0.28per pick57cpaid-61.6%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked Texas Rangers53c301.5$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.841,17643.8%515 W · 661 L-33.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-21.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Athletics41c300$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.81,21953.9%657 W · 562 L+32.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x59b6…307fbacked Texas Rangers62c290.32$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.3281657.1%466 W · 350 L-2.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5659…7a6bbacked Athletics43c276$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.354642.5%232 W · 314 L+7.5wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x834d…0c31backed Texas Rangers28c274$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.28616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-40.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3555…208ebacked Texas Rangers55c272.73$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.7313666.2%90 W · 46 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+12.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8859…89d6backed Texas Rangers55c272.73$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.7315953.5%85 W · 74 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Athletics73c268.96$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.041,24058.1%721 W · 519 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.