MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e6a75aa3fe293ce28dba94274df8ab503e1741c845100a436e9d12bb7a840b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,812
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,705
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,812 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 44c | 11,453$5,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,067.41 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c8…8f5abacked Under | 49c | 8,416$4,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,292.09 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…2e6dbacked Under | 53c | 6,186$3,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,907.62 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 53c | 1,817$966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966.1 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 47c | 1,596$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2918…fe4abacked Under | 48c | 1,230$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.36 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 47c | 1,206$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.82 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 46c | 1,046$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.13 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 47c | 552$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.44 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 38c | 500$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.29 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 73c | 498.77$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.71 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 54c | 498.37$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.34 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 39c | 468.72$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.92 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 73c | 385$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.3 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 40c | 310.18$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.11 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 27c | 305.56$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 46c | 254.9$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.24 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db0…dcffbacked Under | 53c | 177.92$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x689f…259cbacked Over | 40c | 165$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Over | 52c | 152.5$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.05 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 47c | 151.9$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 36c | 112.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.35 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Under | 40c | 77.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.32 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 50c | 76.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 47c | 75.84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 47c | 59.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Over | 58c | 55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 321 | 66.4%213 W · 108 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 47c | 41.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…caa6backed Over | 53c | 33.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 47c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Over | 52c | 29.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 253 | 55.7%141 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76d2…99a6backed Over | 52c | 22.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd62…344abacked Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5this page
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Athletics won
- Texas Rangers vs. AthleticsTexas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. AthleticsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.