MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0b240a6c90ea629c33a44c4d3969c4a1dabf6167616bf5c4aa509120599af36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,987
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,043
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,987 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdfaf…d959backed Over | 42c | 6,997$2,915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,915.09 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -5.2wins | -0.25per pick | 49cpaid | -50%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 58c | 3,665$2,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,532.99 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 59c | 843.2$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.71 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 59c | 820$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.2 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 58c | 800$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 76c | 795.7$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.61 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 24c | 783.98$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.57 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 37c | 410.95$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.05 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…d3aebacked Over | 39c | 282.05$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.71 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -8.6wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -52%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 58c | 259$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.78 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 59c | 254$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.14 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Under | 64c | 213.75$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.2 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 59c | 211.39$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.67 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 61c | 138.3$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.44 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 60c | 103$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 70c | 102.98$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 787 | 54.6%430 W · 357 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Over | 30c | 90.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 303 | 40.6%123 W · 180 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Over | 46c | 86.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 38c | 80.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Under | 76c | 39.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Under | 55c | 31.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 253 | 55.7%141 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 40c | 28.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07b4…6855backed Under | 78c | 25.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 881 | 47.8%421 W · 460 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 64c | 15.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5this page
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Athletics won
- Texas Rangers vs. AthleticsTexas Rangers won
- Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Over won
- Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5Under won
- Texas Rangers vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. AthleticsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.