MLB · resolved market
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x909bfb6b8a3aead591091c834e21c9f975b52c26257a9664a3e620b451dfe130
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Texas Rangers, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,625
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,157
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,625 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Washington Nationals | 66c | 3,147$2,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,064.34 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x927c…6633backed Texas Rangers | 36c | 3,135$1,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,128.6 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86f4…bd70backed Texas Rangers | 31c | 2,950$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Washington Nationals | 64c | 774.54$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.83 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Washington Nationals | 66c | 745$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.82 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Texas Rangers | 30c | 680.01$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.04 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c72…7e7ebacked Texas Rangers | 31c | 602.92$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.91 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Washington Nationals | 75c | 601.65$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.05 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Washington Nationals | 70c | 404$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.3 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe647…1b12backed Washington Nationals | 69c | 318.84$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.84 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Texas Rangers | 32c | 260$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.15 | 587 | 46%270 W · 317 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Washington Nationals | 62c | 257.21$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.93 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Texas Rangers | 32c | 223$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.36 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Texas Rangers | 33c | 213$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.25 | 303 | 40.6%123 W · 180 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Washington Nationals | 68c | 200.71$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.23 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…df9bbacked Washington Nationals | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Texas Rangers | 37c | 191.73$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.94 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Washington Nationals | 69c | 93.56$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Washington Nationals | 69c | 65.43$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Texas Rangers | 18c | 59.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Texas Rangers | 35c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Washington Nationals | 69c | 15.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)this page
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Washington Nationals vs. Texas RangersTexas Rangers won
- Washington Nationals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 4.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Texas RangersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.