MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ef20a587f6ccff5281efd7ed4a20608f0924a8f48c608834b0c37e4bb387d5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $142,522
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $143,708
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $142,522 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 52c | 114,316$59,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54,871.81 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Over | 48c | 110,518$52,943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52,943.23 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b5…7e72backed Over | 49c | 5,316$2,605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,604.78 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,450 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 49c | 4,049$1,967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,967.38 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 48c | 2,489$1,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,184.73 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 49c | 2,339$1,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,192.89 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 49c | 2,167$1,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,058.13 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 52c | 1,470$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.6 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e7…50d1backed Under | 55c | 1,092$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.16 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 48c | 1,051$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.96 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd2…14c2backed Over | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Under | 52c | 770.01$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.01 | 257 | 51.8%133 W · 124 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 53c | 736.46$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.14 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 21c | 675$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.58 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb88a…f6adbacked Under | 52c | 661$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.28 | 287 | 53.3%153 W · 134 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 45c | 624.16$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.87 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 43c | 575.09$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.81 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 62c | 502.64$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.09 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5633…59bcbacked Under | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 279 | 52%145 W · 134 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Under | 50c | 402.31$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.31 | 660 | 50.2%331 W · 329 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Under | 51c | 336$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.64 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.32 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Under | 79c | 298$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.51 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Under | 53c | 226.42$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.42 | 812 | 57.3%465 W · 347 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…38bfbacked Under | 52c | 219$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.12 | 115 | 48.7%56 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 48c | 212.75$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.12 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ac…026cbacked Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Under | 78c | 197.15$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.08 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d7…4291backed Under | 52c | 170$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a51…bf4cbacked Under | 52c | 161.04$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.3 | 278 | 52.2%145 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Over | 48c | 134$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.32 | 450 | 45.8%206 W · 244 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef5…963cbacked Under | 52c | 130$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6888…4c79backed Under | 52c | 127$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.96 | 267 | 51.7%138 W · 129 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Under | 52c | 127$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.96 | 1,299 | 50.9%661 W · 638 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a1…8b76backed Over | 21c | 113.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 51c | 107.85$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 50c | 101.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.47 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…5a9ebacked Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +10.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 53c | 93.11$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.76 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 49c | 81.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.06 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 77c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Over | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 223 | 52.5%117 W · 106 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 53c | 75.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.37 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 50c | 70.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Over | 47c | 60.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c78…7d67backed Over | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 50c | 59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 50c | 59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…e0dbbacked Over | 45c | 56.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…ff44backed Over | 47c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 264 | 44.3%117 W · 147 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 79c | 49.96$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Under | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69d2…a218backed Under | 53c | 47.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff0…2fbabacked Under | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Over | 49c | 43.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb59…6552backed Under | 50c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa23c…ae92backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…ee35backed Under | 53c | 37.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb3…4a24backed Over | 49c | 35.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 100 | 52%52 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 77c | 33.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Over | 38c | 31.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7774…2b2cbacked Under | 50c | 30.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x570b…0bfebacked Over | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 55cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 58c | 26.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5926…e20abacked Under | 52c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ce…feb1backed Over | 48c | 21.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -8.4wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Under | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe682…dbcdbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 70c | 15.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Washington Nationals vs. Texas RangersTexas Rangers won
- Washington Nationals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 4.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Texas RangersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.