MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65bbc09018891d4f0b7987251539fd8149e8227400d2f2686b2b95735bac9002
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,229
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,613
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,229 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 61c | 12,426$7,542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,884.21 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 39c | 5,025$1,957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,957.26 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 60c | 4,268$2,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,717.54 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 39c | 4,230$1,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,640.03 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 40c | 4,096$1,618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,617.92 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 39c | 3,162$1,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,225.39 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 61c | 2,710$1,665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,045.28 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 61c | 2,480$1,524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$955.92 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Over | 38c | 1,500$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 40c | 1,249$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.74 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb88a…f6adbacked Under | 62c | 1,088$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.44 | 287 | 53.3%153 W · 134 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 40c | 850$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.25 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5633…59bcbacked Under | 62c | 722$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.36 | 279 | 52%145 W · 134 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 42c | 709.45$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.97 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 26c | 653.03$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.26 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 42c | 500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 39c | 289.91$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.72 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 38c | 276$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 39c | 264.97$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.34 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 37c | 259.84$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.44 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Over | 39c | 256.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Under | 62c | 246$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.48 | 1,299 | 50.9%661 W · 638 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe176…0f99backed Under | 63c | 238.1$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.1 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 34c | 204.78$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.6 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 73c | 179.95$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.14 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Over | 40c | 175$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 38c | 171.25$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.08 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Over | 39c | 150$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 736 | 53%390 W · 346 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Under | 76c | 149.13$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.32 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Over | 40c | 140.85$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.99 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…bf33backed Under | 61c | 131.15$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 42c | 130.97$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 41c | 109$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 30c | 100.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked Over | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Over | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 220 | 50.5%111 W · 109 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Under | 75c | 96$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 63c | 95.23$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 979 | 44.4%435 W · 544 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66fe…42c6backed Under | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Over | 39c | 60.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…33dabacked Over | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41cf…8268backed Under | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 118 | 61%72 W · 46 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 29c | 47.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Under | 74c | 47.26$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 41c | 43.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 39c | 42.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 390 | 53.6%209 W · 181 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf236…2e36backed Over | 38c | 42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Over | 30c | 39.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbf…7ce5backed Over | 38c | 34.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 121 | 40.5%49 W · 72 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa415…6fb9backed Under | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 767 | 52.3%401 W · 366 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Over | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Under | 64c | 27.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9deb…536fbacked Under | 62c | 26.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbedb…6bc3backed Under | 63c | 26.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +5.1wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…639dbacked Under | 58c | 24.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 309 | 60.2%186 W · 123 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 78c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Washington Nationals vs. Texas RangersTexas Rangers won
- Washington Nationals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 4.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Texas RangersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.