MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf69f161c9e4cf28dca606ee83aa51cd738d373ed4a0e438ccbb6dc20b455bbcd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,176
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,122
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,176 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 73c | 39,216$28,727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,488.61 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 26c | 20,000$5,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,200 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 27c | 17,448$4,788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,788.35 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 72c | 10,074$7,291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,783.2 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 17c | 5,258$904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904.17 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…9fc9backed Over | 28c | 3,571$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 15c | 3,454$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.9 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 28c | 2,663$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.99 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 24c | 2,508$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 27c | 1,822$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.61 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 72c | 1,654$1,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.5 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 26c | 919$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.94 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 9c | 895$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.02 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 29c | 848.2$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.98 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 22c | 813$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.86 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Over | 28c | 610$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.8 | 173 | 46.2%80 W · 93 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 21c | 605.64$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.56 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 25c | 492.48$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 31c | 471.77$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.25 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 27c | 446$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.42 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 26c | 347.13$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.96 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 11c | 282$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 30c | 248$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.12 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a34…a28bbacked Over | 18c | 214.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -66%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Over | 12c | 200.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 9c | 193$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 34c | 161.78$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7734…017dbacked Over | 27c | 153.37$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.41 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e4debacked Over | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Over | 29c | 125.15$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.77 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9deb…536fbacked Under | 71c | 101.47$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.43 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbedb…6bc3backed Under | 71c | 101.46$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +5.1wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 19c | 100.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 31c | 76.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Over | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…1798backed Under | 66c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5this page
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Washington Nationals vs. Texas RangersTexas Rangers won
- Washington Nationals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 4.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Texas RangersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.