MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Texas Rangers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6228444e01baeca433e13b948f0da43009d6538c0794f212fc7c5eed088d9a5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,538
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,492
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,538 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ad4…6866backed No | 57c | 5,201$2,965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,236.43 | 158 | 49.4%78 W · 80 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…89aabacked Yes | 44c | 5,086$2,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,237.83 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf0…00fbbacked Yes | 43c | 4,000$1,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,720 | 492 | 50.4%248 W · 244 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked No | 56c | 2,909$1,632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,277.1 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 44c | 2,595$1,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,134.47 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 44c | 2,357$1,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,025.77 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 56c | 1,978$1,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870.32 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Yes | 44c | 1,683$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733.18 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 56c | 1,538$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.72 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb88a…f6adbacked No | 56c | 855.99$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.64 | 287 | 53.3%153 W · 134 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 57c | 854.98$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.64 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2185…b40cbacked No | 56c | 628$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.32 | 262 | 55.7%146 W · 116 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5633…59bcbacked No | 56c | 505$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.2 | 279 | 52%145 W · 134 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked No | 55c | 502.17$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x762e…4bf0backed No | 58c | 434.24$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.8 | 245 | 51.8%127 W · 118 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Yes | 42c | 392.15$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.7 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb361…7348backed No | 57c | 289.47$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.47 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e58…fb5abacked No | 56c | 249.99$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 109 | 61.5%67 W · 42 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…145dbacked No | 57c | 219.3$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.3 | 220 | 55.5%122 W · 98 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 45c | 115.07$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.41 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed No | 57c | 95.23$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 252 | 48.8%123 W · 129 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 44c | 83$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Yes | 43c | 78.36$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41cf…8268backed No | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 118 | 61%72 W · 46 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f5…f087backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d6…8727backed No | 56c | 46.41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88a0…f673backed No | 56c | 38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 44c | 37.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…aa92backed Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 356 | 52.5%187 W · 169 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18f6…b00bbacked No | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Texas Rangersthis page
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Washington Nationals vs. Texas RangersTexas Rangers won
- Washington Nationals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 4.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.