NFL · resolved market
Will the Chiefs score 26 or more points in Super Bowl LIX?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7b41af1149ca22b743a566c0691110d91c75f33e85127d50784089fc5224d68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,260
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,292
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,260 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe4b6…c3bfbacked Over | 46c | 793.29$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc54…aad2backed Under | 54c | 793.29$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Under | 51c | 705.2$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.55 | 128 | 42.2%54 W · 74 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd5…6960backed Over | 49c | 427.76$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4104…c5f6backed Over | 46c | 299.99$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Under | 50c | 291$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.5 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…5b91backed Over | 55c | 289$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.95 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.21per pick | 27cpaid | -77%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Under | 45c | 289$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.95 | 228 | 38.6%88 W · 140 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…df9bbacked Under | 54c | 232.19$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.81 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x120e…d3c3backed Over | 49c | 126.98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4201…19bfbacked Under | 54c | 125.44$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3497…71cdbacked Over | 49c | 122.92$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd73e…592ebacked Under | 53c | 119.8$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89a2…6c31backed Under | 53c | 117$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Under | 60c | 105.53$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.78 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…dcadbacked Over | 48c | 90$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0787…1bafbacked Over | 47c | 86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +120.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a7…aa13backed Over | 49c | 75.51$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41f…4e85backed Over | 47c | 69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e8…cc01backed Under | 53c | 69$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb299…4a62backed Over | 47c | 68.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 375 | 56.3%211 W · 164 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9c…7e44backed Under | 66c | 63.16$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Under | 51c | 42.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 153 | 32%49 W · 104 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5b…69ebbacked Over | 49c | 42.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x438f…90f9backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked Under | 51c | 40.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0516…f1f5backed Over | 49c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c36…eaaebacked Over | 47c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Over | 46c | 27.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Under | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc85a…8cd8backed Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Chiefs score 26 or more points in Super Bowl LIX?this page
- Will the Chiefs score 17 or more points in Super Bowl LIX?Over won
- Will the Chiefs score 20 or more points in Super Bowl LIX?Over won
- Will the Chiefs score 32 or more points in Super Bowl LIX?Under won
- Will the Chiefs score 35 or more points in Super Bowl LIX?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.