Champions League · resolved market
Will Al Hilal win Group H at the FIFA Club World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08a60fc0baa238514d61ef47420c779559eb4caf98561365b8d4347cf03b84c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,890
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,950
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,890 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 3c | 12,500$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.69 | 219 | 38.4%84 W · 135 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,559$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.23 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b97…cfc1backed Yes | 4c | 1,289$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 40cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 2c | 1,268$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 76c | 1,115$845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.11 | 389 | 35.2%137 W · 252 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…df9bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +106.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Yes | 7c | 898.79$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.92 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 5c | 896.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.54 | 306 | 57.5%176 W · 130 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 6c | 850$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.85 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Yes | 9c | 799.97$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 10c | 760.81$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.59 | 291 | 36.8%107 W · 184 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 225 | 47.6%107 W · 118 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Yes | 5c | 616.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 599.21$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.67 | 187 | 7%13 W · 174 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Yes | 4c | 563.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba0e…5cebbacked Yes | 6c | 499.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -75%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd386…1887backed Yes | 7c | 430.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd470…783ebacked Yes | 5c | 422$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b60…76d5backed No | 75c | 420$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3875…1fd2backed Yes | 7c | 286.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 114 | 29.8%34 W · 80 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…4f96backed Yes | 17c | 178.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 11c | 143.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 75c | 125$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 23c | 116$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 217 | 44.7%97 W · 120 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…7168backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 75c | 57$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 291 | 42.3%123 W · 168 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 25c | 56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 163 | 27%44 W · 119 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 228 | 47.8%109 W · 119 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa791…bf23backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Al Hilal win Group H at the FIFA Club World Cup?this page
- Will Pachuca win Group H at the FIFA Club World Cup?No won
- Will RB Salzburg win Group H at the FIFA Club World Cup?No won
- Will Real Madrid win Group H at the FIFA Club World Cup?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.