Champions League · resolved market
Will Real Madrid win Group H at the FIFA Club World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x945566d7f7de7f5040a1dcd64823edd0e6e6fdd9d8839fb94259d0a550d3f21b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,280
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,300
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,280 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6771…b783backed No | 17c | 4,222$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.39 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 13c | 3,915$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.74 | 306 | 57.5%176 W · 130 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…8befbacked Yes | 74c | 2,863$2,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.52 | 61 | 70.5%43 W · 18 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea5…2af9backed Yes | 72c | 2,350$1,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.49 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7256…30c9backed No | 34c | 2,210$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.9 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 12c | 1,957$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.05 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 68c | 1,423$967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.69 | 389 | 35.2%137 W · 252 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…d15dbacked Yes | 75c | 1,350$1,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333 | 55 | 67.3%37 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c0…722ebacked No | 12c | 1,342$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3587…23adbacked Yes | 78c | 1,287$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.05 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 18c | 1,216$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.07 | 291 | 36.8%107 W · 184 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked No | 13c | 1,035$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.19 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2130…b64dbacked Yes | 70c | 945.57$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.26 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd470…783ebacked No | 15c | 852.75$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…1b1cbacked No | 10c | 849.09$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 14c | 828.84$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.98 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed No | 22c | 799.86$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.97 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc853…9d37backed No | 34c | 793$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.69 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49f…3408backed No | 30c | 768.09$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 30c | 688.47$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.77 | 115 | 48.7%56 W · 59 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked No | 12c | 650.65$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.06 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe394…289cbacked Yes | 67c | 641$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.69 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.25per pick | 49cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked No | 26c | 388.54$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.26 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3095…8e0ebacked No | 15c | 352.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.83 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43a1…2425backed No | 14c | 351.84$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.13 | 95 | 40%38 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked No | 29c | 222$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.38 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…cc33backed No | 23c | 220$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +131.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 13c | 205.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 77c | 203$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.04 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked No | 23c | 198.74$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.17 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 28c | 193.31$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.87 | 187 | 7%13 W · 174 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 12c | 151.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d6…4e88backed Yes | 65c | 150.78$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…ecadbacked No | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Yes | 68c | 146.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.22 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed No | 17c | 140.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1375…d8f5backed Yes | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3076…e1d7backed Yes | 74c | 134.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.92 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d67…7915backed Yes | 72c | 124.17$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +11.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbcbf…4ffabacked Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19bb…6609backed No | 17c | 99.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2d…ebb1backed Yes | 65c | 92.31$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11ca…c3c9backed Yes | 65c | 83.01$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…aac8backed Yes | 69c | 72.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.71 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 28c | 62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 163 | 27%44 W · 119 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c2…5a81backed Yes | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf336…124abacked Yes | 76c | 52.31$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067e…2be8backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 64c | 47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +4.0wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc1…80c1backed No | 57c | 43.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Yes | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 206 | 67.5%139 W · 67 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8437…45c5backed Yes | 67c | 31.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5c…e309backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -32%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 217 | 44.7%97 W · 120 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd978…d50abacked Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x639e…a9d4backed Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 64c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 183 | 34.4%63 W · 120 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0864…b3d0backed Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98c6…e200backed Yes | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb96…cd51backed Yes | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05f5…ea82backed Yes | 64c | 20.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced3…eea4backed Yes | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -88.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Real Madrid win Group H at the FIFA Club World Cup?this page
- Will Al Hilal win Group H at the FIFA Club World Cup?No won
- Will Pachuca win Group H at the FIFA Club World Cup?No won
- Will RB Salzburg win Group H at the FIFA Club World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.