MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1cb2a88f6c6c9d91d7c8a55366e973c3abe047664e83c96df0ba7ed0fac3cab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,220
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,464
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,220 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 44c | 24,444$10,795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,795.41 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 56c | 18,527$10,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,151.86 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Over | 37c | 2,963$1,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,867 | 489 | 52.8%258 W · 231 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 56c | 2,182$1,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.52 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 57c | 2,099$1,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902.57 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 52c | 1,038$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.28 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 63c | 970.2$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.23 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 50c | 567.98$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.5 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 63c | 541.78$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.32 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 63c | 399$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.37 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbac…38d0backed Over | 79c | 370.95$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.9 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 63c | 281.86$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.57 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 21c | 221$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.41 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 63c | 220$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.19 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…df9bbacked Under | 63c | 200$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Under | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8675…725dbacked Under | 59c | 169.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 63c | 146$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.98 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 63c | 108$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.04 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9deb…536fbacked Under | 63c | 101.88$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.18 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…f8bdbacked Over | 77c | 93.16$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 37c | 69$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.18 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Over | 55c | 48.64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 253 | 55.7%141 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 43c | 42.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 50c | 39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Over | 79c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe3…6599backed Over | 58c | 20.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3618…b2b2backed Over | 58c | 17.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston AstrosLos Angeles Angels won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros: O/U 13.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston AstrosYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.