MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x877977e07ef7b1b0b070c56ecb0cbb611b8c69bd08d9dc9ba9fc0afaeae51988
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,099
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,185
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,099 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Under | 45c | 6,990$3,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,145.5 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 55c | 3,874$2,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,742.95 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Under | 45c | 3,228$1,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,452.69 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Over | 55c | 3,000$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350 | 489 | 52.8%258 W · 231 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 55c | 3,000$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,349.91 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 44c | 1,311$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.36 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 55c | 1,194$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.3 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 56c | 786.87$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.22 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 62c | 483.87$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.87 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 38c | 382.99$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.54 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…f8bdbacked Over | 76c | 197.37$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.37 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 55c | 173.47$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.06 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 56c | 162.89$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.14 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 55c | 139.5$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.77 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Over | 55c | 115$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.75 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8a…24c2backed Under | 45c | 112$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…7017backed Under | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf15…a1febacked Under | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 151 | 47.7%72 W · 79 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b94…09dcbacked Under | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9deb…536fbacked Under | 45c | 102.82$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.27 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbedb…6bc3backed Under | 45c | 102.8$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.26 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +5.1wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 67c | 100.46$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Under | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 55c | 97.89$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.05 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Under | 42c | 94.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 45c | 93.09$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.89 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 45c | 75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 57c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe3…6599backed Over | 56c | 36.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 59c | 34.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde36…f41cbacked Under | 46c | 31.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Over | 55c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1b…aa71backed Over | 56c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston AstrosLos Angeles Angels won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros: O/U 13.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston AstrosYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.