MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89dd519178a1075e3c146cff9c9d02bd6ac20548542f28925571eac3519cbe89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,293
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,320
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,293 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2dd7…89aabacked Yes | 51c | 8,018$4,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,888.98 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 49c | 3,044$1,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,491.51 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed No | 48c | 2,895$1,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,391.94 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed No | 48c | 1,525$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.02 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 52c | 1,109$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.32 | 712 | 53.4%380 W · 332 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 48c | 878$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.44 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 49c | 692.01$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.03 | 1,884 | 53%998 W · 886 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 53c | 685$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.77 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed No | 48c | 510.85$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.21 | 792 | 47.5%376 W · 416 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 47c | 293.75$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.06 | 1,301 | 50.2%653 W · 648 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 48c | 250$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…145dbacked Yes | 52c | 240.38$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.38 | 231 | 55%127 W · 104 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x483a…4fd0backed No | 49c | 234.69$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47f6…b051backed Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 177 | 46.3%82 W · 95 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb4…0060backed Yes | 52c | 192.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.3 | 177 | 52.5%93 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 47c | 163.34$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.77 | 1,538 | 48.6%747 W · 791 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…821fbacked No | 54c | 143.75$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 551 | 46.8%258 W · 293 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a9…df08backed Yes | 53c | 94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.18 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed No | 47c | 74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 884 | 46.3%409 W · 475 L | +26.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 48c | 65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 47c | 53.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 671 | 52.5%352 W · 319 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a50…c1e5backed No | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 48c | 46.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 46c | 43.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 1,828 | 54.1%989 W · 839 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed No | 48c | 43.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 343 | 55.4%190 W · 153 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Yes | 53c | 41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 802 | 55%441 W · 361 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f87…e128backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed Yes | 53c | 20.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astrosthis page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston AstrosLos Angeles Angels won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros: O/U 13.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.