MLB · resolved market
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22a34396536667bce2fc762a3f550575db23b5561e099b419b175d8b894fdd75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Angelsof Houston Astros, Los Angeles Angels
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,169
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,234
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,169 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf438…9559backed Los Angeles Angels | 55c | 40,000$22,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,999.99 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Houston Astros | 45c | 19,631$8,834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,834.07 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb939…da70backed Houston Astros | 45c | 11,504$5,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,177 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8239…d9a3backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 5,357$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,357.14 | 81 | 66.7%54 W · 27 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Houston Astros | 44c | 4,601$2,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,024.51 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Houston Astros | 45c | 4,440$1,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,997.99 | 694 | 53.6%372 W · 322 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Houston Astros | 45c | 1,365$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.25 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Houston Astros | 45c | 1,305$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.21 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Houston Astros | 44c | 954.44$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.95 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Los Angeles Angels | 55c | 912.56$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.65 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Houston Astros | 45c | 828.75$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.94 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Houston Astros | 45c | 828.69$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.18 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed Houston Astros | 45c | 666.67$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 347 | 56.5%196 W · 151 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Houston Astros | 48c | 644.91$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.61 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eae…f9d1backed Los Angeles Angels | 55c | 605.24$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.36 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Houston Astros | 25c | 487.48$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.85 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b16…1290backed Houston Astros | 45c | 420$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 363.57$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.97 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Los Angeles Angels | 64c | 356$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.21 | 5,126 | 54.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L | +231.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Houston Astros | 45c | 312.86$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.66 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Houston Astros | 45c | 263.75$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.69 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…0e95backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 249.99$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Los Angeles Angels | 52c | 239.67$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.85 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Los Angeles Angels | 73c | 233.5$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.68 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb4…0060backed Houston Astros | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Houston Astros | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Houston Astros | 32c | 215.14$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.81 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a91…15c5backed Houston Astros | 45c | 214.18$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.38 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 206.38$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.06 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Los Angeles Angels | 60c | 192.32$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.28 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Los Angeles Angels | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Houston Astros | 45c | 185.8$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.61 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Houston Astros | 28c | 178$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.06 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9deb…536fbacked Los Angeles Angels | 55c | 163.68$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.66 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbedb…6bc3backed Los Angeles Angels | 55c | 163.67$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.65 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +5.1wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Houston Astros | 45c | 154$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.66 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Los Angeles Angels | 54c | 101.87$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.86 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Houston Astros | 39c | 96.85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.86 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Los Angeles Angels | 55c | 95.2$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…7017backed Los Angeles Angels | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf15…a1febacked Los Angeles Angels | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 151 | 47.7%72 W · 79 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b94…09dcbacked Los Angeles Angels | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbae…9720backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 89.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.28 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Los Angeles Angels | 68c | 87.12$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41cf…8268backed Houston Astros | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 118 | 61%72 W · 46 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Houston Astros | 26c | 62.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Los Angeles Angels | 52c | 56.21$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 1,911 | 53.1%1,014 W · 897 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Los Angeles Angels | 67c | 44.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 3,456 | 51.2%1,771 W · 1,685 L | +107.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…d12ebacked Los Angeles Angels | 67c | 44.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +5.3wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x360a…1098backed Houston Astros | 45c | 43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Los Angeles Angels | 65c | 40.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 250 | 53.2%133 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Houston Astros | 46c | 37.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Houston Astros | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 920 | 46%423 W · 497 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Los Angeles Angels | 55c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Los Angeles Angels | 62c | 25.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…1aa7backed Los Angeles Angels | 54c | 22.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 18.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 305 | 54.4%166 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Los Angeles Angels | 79c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston AstrosLos Angeles Angels won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros: O/U 13.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston AstrosYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.