MLB · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50943b405395e784e744c5d6a2f75d4683a5f4d71d0d4c2498831e88ae1d93a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pittsburgh Piratesof Los Angeles Dodgers, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,722
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,093
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,722 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x927c…6633backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 53c | 11,200$5,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,919.73 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 48c | 6,118$2,915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,202.71 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3234…8b1abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 63c | 4,824$3,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,790.16 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 39c | 3,115$1,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,214.85 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 2,021$1,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.05 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 51c | 2,006$1,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992.31 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 1,284$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.38 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 968.8$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.52 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 71c | 960.85$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.2 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 661$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.35 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 16c | 536.18$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.01 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 514.58$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.11 | 587 | 46%270 W · 317 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 78c | 511.53$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.73 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…de15backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 48c | 322.83$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.41 | 171 | 60.8%104 W · 67 L | +11.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…1066backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 56c | 257.16$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.01 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 39c | 250$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 36c | 240.83$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.28 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 50c | 220.02$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.01 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…df9bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 198.69$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.44 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 193.55$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.16 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb361…7348backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 57c | 180.44$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.25 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 36c | 174.7$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.27 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 160.83$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.68 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3618…b2b2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 56c | 146.53$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.47 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 44c | 102.61$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 557 | 58%323 W · 234 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…9077backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 39c | 79.77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 52c | 74.09$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.93 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 66.1$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 65.49$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 47c | 61.62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.66 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 61c | 53.59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 36c | 42.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…e5b4backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 47c | 35.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 446 | 51.6%230 W · 216 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 33.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 406 | 58.4%237 W · 169 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 33.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 42c | 32.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 31.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f8…99d0backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 47c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f7…26b3backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 53c | 26.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 68c | 25.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…fbeebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69e4…9bacbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles DodgersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.