MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c6fcac835b51c942e39e725461e7e5c0ce5c982e74c642c0d6ce177f9756e07
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $122,807
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $124,467
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $122,807 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 46c | 63,005$28,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,719.71 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 54c | 20,000$10,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,200 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 56c | 19,614$10,984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,630.32 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 46c | 17,085$7,859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,859.33 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 54c | 16,422$8,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,497.29 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…8409backed Over | 55c | 10,000$5,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,500 | 260 | 54.2%141 W · 119 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 54c | 5,000$2,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,300 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 44c | 3,192$1,405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,404.57 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Over | 55c | 2,500$1,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,124.98 | 444 | 51.1%227 W · 217 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 54c | 2,006$1,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.76 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd403…a817backed Under | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 4cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 59c | 1,888$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$778.04 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 54c | 1,754$953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.78 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Over | 54c | 1,600$864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 46c | 1,303$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.17 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 44c | 1,299$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.57 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 55c | 1,217$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.05 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Over | 54c | 1,200$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 54c | 800$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 44c | 774.64$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.84 | 413 | 46.7%193 W · 220 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64e7…50d1backed Under | 43c | 696.41$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.58 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 46c | 649.66$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.84 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 32c | 638$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.91 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 44c | 535.91$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.8 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Under | 13c | 473$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.68 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 64c | 386.43$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.91 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 61c | 371.58$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.97 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 44c | 349.53$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.54 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 61c | 272.43$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.27 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 46c | 256.68$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.07 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 45c | 227.94$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.55 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Over | 56c | 214.29$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.29 | 151 | 53%80 W · 71 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 35c | 211.43$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Over | 57c | 121.6$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.71 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…e0dbbacked Under | 32c | 79.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked Under | 44c | 64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 127 | 52%66 W · 61 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Over | 54c | 61.37$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 305 | 54.4%166 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Over | 54c | 49.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 44c | 47.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69d2…a218backed Over | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Under | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e1…9bc1backed Over | 56c | 39.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 360 | 50.3%181 W · 179 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 55c | 37.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13b8…0f33backed Over | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb59…6552backed Over | 56c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Under | 47c | 34.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Over | 54c | 34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 54c | 32.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 52c | 27.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…f3aabacked Over | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd355…e402backed Over | 55c | 22.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd9…2c1dbacked Over | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 74cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Over | 54c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 214 | 49.5%106 W · 108 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Over | 54c | 19.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 54c | 19.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 54c | 19.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles DodgersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.