MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a68bdad36a39ae50f7fdb241e3c6e7413a0cb719d23d16b81bda60de7a97268
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,298
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,296
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,298 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked No | 55c | 27,447$14,978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,977.52 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb727…2a9dbacked Yes | 46c | 21,800$10,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,771.97 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 45c | 7,880$3,549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,330.66 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed No | 54c | 5,887$3,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,178.76 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 54c | 3,741$2,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,020.14 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Yes | 45c | 2,756$1,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,508.48 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 45c | 2,575$1,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,409.17 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…89aabacked Yes | 45c | 2,545$1,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,399.74 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 45c | 1,749$787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$961.68 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb88a…f6adbacked No | 54c | 940$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.6 | 287 | 53.3%153 W · 134 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Yes | 44c | 892.86$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd898…20e7backed No | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5633…59bcbacked No | 54c | 662$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.48 | 279 | 52%145 W · 134 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 41c | 324.66$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.45 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 45c | 250$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.5 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…2b75backed No | 53c | 250$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.5 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4a…4ce0backed No | 55c | 206$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.3 | 161 | 55.9%90 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed No | 54c | 181$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.74 | 1,299 | 50.9%661 W · 638 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 66c | 148.35$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.91 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9c…8927backed No | 54c | 143$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.22 | 187 | 51.9%97 W · 90 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Yes | 43c | 114.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.74 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b75…409ebacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 315 | 49.2%155 W · 160 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6c…a2c3backed No | 55c | 95.65$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.61 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 55c | 92.7$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.98 | 979 | 44.4%435 W · 544 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88a0…f673backed No | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeecd…4fefbacked Yes | 48c | 39.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 193 | 56.5%109 W · 84 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd355…e402backed No | 55c | 22.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Dodgersthis page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.