MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc17bed95731b81d299690eb1e860aff137fe2bf1ae237a94092801d8d81f029
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,411
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,211
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,411 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 43c | 6,347$2,758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,758.4 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 51c | 5,331$2,723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,607.55 | 1,414 | 49.5%700 W · 714 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 65c | 3,702$2,404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,297.51 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 48c | 3,550$1,688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,687.92 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 37c | 3,378$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,249.86 | 883 | 49.3%435 W · 448 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdce…b9dfbacked Under | 49c | 2,552$1,238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,314.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 55c | 1,285$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.91 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd898…20e7backed Under | 50c | 1,227$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.46 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa06a…d284backed Over | 41c | 1,220$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 59c | 707.08$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.58 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 36c | 384$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.62 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d3…079fbacked Under | 47c | 362.28$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.01 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 63c | 317.47$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.47 | 657 | 49.2%323 W · 334 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 59c | 265.63$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.79 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd065…93e8backed Over | 67c | 247$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.49 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 43c | 217.92$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.93 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 21c | 210$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1,194 | 29%346 W · 848 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 20c | 199.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 45c | 182.7$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.01 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 36c | 152.79$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 64c | 150.19$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 47c | 149.98$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.08 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2542…7821backed Under | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 54c | 127.8$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.32 | 671 | 52.5%352 W · 319 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Under | 44c | 123.98$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 324 | 34.6%112 W · 212 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 46c | 104$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 800 | 52%416 W · 384 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 45c | 100.22$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.14 | 476 | 46.8%223 W · 253 L | +27.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Under | 63c | 99.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 282 | 45.7%129 W · 153 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Under | 67c | 99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Over | 37c | 94.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 163 | 53.4%87 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Under | 49c | 84.49$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.09 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 64c | 75.77$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 336 | 49.1%165 W · 171 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 64c | 64$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 838 | 54.7%458 W · 380 L | +29.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb59…6552backed Over | 37c | 52.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8195…3fedbacked Over | 45c | 49.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Under | 61c | 47.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 214 | 49.5%106 W · 108 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Over | 50c | 47.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 416 | 48.8%203 W · 213 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 35c | 42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 895 | 48.3%432 W · 463 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Under | 53c | 40.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb361…7348backed Under | 48c | 35.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a46…2482backed Under | 64c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1193…d9c4backed Over | 37c | 31.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…6902backed Over | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Over | 49c | 23.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 195 | 48.2%94 W · 101 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 63c | 20.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Over | 52c | 19.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 396 | 53%210 W · 186 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles DodgersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.