Champions League · resolved market
Will Fluminense win Group F at the FIFA Club World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76d8528b6e474cf79b6a392a1c37dac4fdcb56244b2327bd939ca9c5d85ba538
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,060
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,022
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,060 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 31c | 10,004$3,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,129.18 | 219 | 38.4%84 W · 135 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 71c | 7,830$5,591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,239.65 | 291 | 36.8%107 W · 184 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 28c | 1,413$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.98 | 306 | 57.5%176 W · 130 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…f137backed Yes | 31c | 1,350$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.52 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc853…9d37backed No | 58c | 1,244$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.48 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed No | 54c | 1,006$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe394…289cbacked No | 73c | 951.8$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.58 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.25per pick | 49cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x43a1…2425backed No | 70c | 787.07$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.63 | 95 | 40%38 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed No | 66c | 757$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.4 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed No | 73c | 686.84$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.84 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7256…30c9backed No | 63c | 461.97$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.97 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed No | 62c | 460.91$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.48 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6332…6128backed Yes | 24c | 424.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…df9bbacked Yes | 30c | 401.98$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.59 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 15c | 350$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59a3…350ebacked Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 32c | 309.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Yes | 43c | 254.79$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.56 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +363.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked No | 60c | 244$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.6 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68bb…812cbacked Yes | 41c | 241.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6771…b783backed No | 71c | 241.41$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.11 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 26c | 229$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.14 | 163 | 27%44 W · 119 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…dc09backed Yes | 43c | 220$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.6 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…28fdbacked Yes | 48c | 210$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 35c | 201$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.18 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked No | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 26c | 196.62$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.27 | 187 | 7%13 W · 174 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 29c | 175$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 225 | 47.6%107 W · 118 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked No | 67c | 174.27$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.89 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed No | 58c | 149.84$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.93 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c27…1555backed No | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2d…ebb1backed Yes | 44c | 138.64$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 60c | 134.54$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.28 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b60…76d5backed Yes | 40c | 134.4$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.11 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…cc33backed No | 72c | 130$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +131.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 77c | 117$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 389 | 35.2%137 W · 252 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 173 | 22%38 W · 135 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf750…4abbbacked No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked No | 62c | 99.1$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.66 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc1…80c1backed Yes | 34c | 96.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 69c | 96.46$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 70c | 95.04$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…f74ebacked No | 73c | 90$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2130…b64dbacked Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 114 | 29.8%34 W · 80 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccff…e845backed No | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b0f…62b3backed No | 71c | 59.67$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x175b…b14cbacked Yes | 29c | 56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab30…d8cebacked Yes | 39c | 50.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc89e…6a30backed Yes | 39c | 50.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed No | 63c | 50.15$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4116…330abacked Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 43c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 33c | 41.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9394…37dabacked No | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd8…7effbacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…d14bbacked Yes | 41c | 38.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30f1…c78bbacked No | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d77…fdbebacked Yes | 35c | 30.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fluminense win Group F at the FIFA Club World Cup?this page
- Will Borussia Dortmund win Group F at the FIFA Club World Cup?Yes won
- Will Mamelodi Sundowns win Group F at the FIFA Club World Cup?No won
- Will Ulsan Hyundai win Group F at the FIFA Club World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.