MLB · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcde3cd90dabdb6cf63a7f0ebcbb0ce8c3eb8bc5378b9201a47679209107599ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Twinsof Atlanta Braves, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,537
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,362
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,537 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Atlanta Braves | 45c | 2,945$1,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,325.3 | 501 | 53.5%268 W · 233 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Minnesota Twins | 55c | 1,250$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.5 | 326 | 52.5%171 W · 155 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Minnesota Twins | 56c | 1,157$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.18 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Minnesota Twins | 56c | 1,074$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.07 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Atlanta Braves | 44c | 480.02$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.13 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Atlanta Braves | 44c | 424.89$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.66 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Minnesota Twins | 55c | 394.9$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.7 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Atlanta Braves | 43c | 372.6$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.72 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Minnesota Twins | 64c | 327.95$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.11 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Atlanta Braves | 46c | 300.87$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.4 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Atlanta Braves | 29c | 287.98$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.31 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Minnesota Twins | 55c | 283.93$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.77 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Minnesota Twins | 55c | 237.3$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.6 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9698…2504backed Atlanta Braves | 42c | 232.55$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.67 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 216.32$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.07 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…df9bbacked Minnesota Twins | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Minnesota Twins | 67c | 176$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.08 | 5,126 | 54.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L | +231.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Atlanta Braves | 24c | 175.26$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.06 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Atlanta Braves | 46c | 173.5$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.49 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Minnesota Twins | 56c | 167.41$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.66 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Minnesota Twins | 57c | 149.97$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.93 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Atlanta Braves | 42c | 138.14$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.02 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Atlanta Braves | 21c | 110.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 94.84$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.83 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Atlanta Braves | 46c | 92.91$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.74 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Atlanta Braves | 42c | 74.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Atlanta Braves | 44c | 69.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…62eabacked Atlanta Braves | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 242 | 48.8%118 W · 124 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Minnesota Twins | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1,803 | 53.8%970 W · 833 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Minnesota Twins | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 486 | 51.6%251 W · 235 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a69…8caabacked Atlanta Braves | 25c | 48.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7f…6d8dbacked Atlanta Braves | 25c | 47.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Minnesota Twins | 76c | 45.16$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 250 | 53.2%133 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69d2…a218backed Atlanta Braves | 46c | 43.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Atlanta Braves | 39c | 38.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 36.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Atlanta Braves | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked Minnesota Twins | 55c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Minnesota Twins | 56c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Minnesota Twins | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 5.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota TwinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.