MLB · resolved market
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d88f5ac9d66ca5c120c23f8bbab495fe640045777ebdb51e4c872e6ee93f882
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Houston Astros, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,660
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,687
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,660 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Houston Astros | 34c | 3,250$1,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,141.85 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Athletics | 66c | 2,048$1,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,351.68 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Athletics | 65c | 1,544$1,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,003.8 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Houston Astros | 34c | 872.71$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.99 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Athletics | 55c | 847.19$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.61 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb88a…f6adbacked Houston Astros | 35c | 700$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455 | 287 | 53.3%153 W · 134 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Athletics | 66c | 659$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.94 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Athletics | 66c | 632.2$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.25 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5633…59bcbacked Houston Astros | 35c | 600$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 279 | 52%145 W · 134 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Houston Astros | 33c | 248.03$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.18 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Athletics | 53c | 210.21$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.89 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…df9bbacked Athletics | 67c | 200$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Houston Astros | 34c | 161.78$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.78 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…8aedbacked Athletics | 67c | 149.25$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.36 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Athletics | 68c | 135.44$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.97 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Houston Astros | 60c | 124.98$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.26 | 587 | 46%270 W · 317 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Houston Astros | 45c | 105.39$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.21 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Athletics | 15c | 105$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Houston Astros | 33c | 99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.33 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Athletics | 66c | 70$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Houston Astros | 34c | 51.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 1,299 | 50.9%661 W · 638 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Athletics | 66c | 48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Athletics | 66c | 45.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Houston Astros | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Houston Astros | 49c | 32.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Athletics | 70c | 14.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 250 | 53.2%133 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)this page
- Athletics vs. Houston AstrosHouston Astros won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 4.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Houston AstrosNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.