MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb103a84b5d6a55fe2f246871e9485f57f30aa2af304124c2f4ee3a7ff96f5b59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $126,750
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $127,110
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,750 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 51c | 92,292$47,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47,076.25 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Under | 50c | 36,955$18,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,365.17 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 47c | 27,838$13,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,708.32 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 55c | 12,486$6,867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,618.55 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 50c | 12,369$6,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,201.53 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 52c | 3,347$1,724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,623.36 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 29c | 2,193$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.99 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 53c | 1,700$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 78c | 1,500$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.85 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…92d3backed Over | 48c | 1,290$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.42 | 127 | 59.1%75 W · 52 L | +9.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…7f85backed Under | 79c | 1,266$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.82 | 32 | 81.3%26 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.18per pick | 64cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Under | 50c | 1,123$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.17 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 52c | 1,004$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.08 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 49c | 1,000$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.32 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 46c | 734.84$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.62 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 48c | 729$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.92 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 52c | 600$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 50c | 597.61$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.33 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…de15backed Under | 50c | 543.34$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.33 | 171 | 60.8%104 W · 67 L | +11.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 43c | 515$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.55 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 49c | 490$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.9 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 52c | 462.81$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.15 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 53c | 419$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.71 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 52c | 377.4$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.81 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Over | 48c | 374.48$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.75 | 220 | 50.5%111 W · 109 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 48c | 331$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.15 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 54c | 302.83$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.19 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Under | 50c | 202.34$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.17 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 49c | 113$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.37 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 50c | 109.6$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.8 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 51c | 105.19$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.87 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Over | 48c | 94.31$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.27 | 501 | 53.5%268 W · 233 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 48c | 84.72$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.71 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 50c | 74.53$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.08 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked Under | 52c | 64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 127 | 52%66 W · 61 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 57c | 63.55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Over | 50c | 63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…e5b4backed Under | 50c | 56.74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.37 | 446 | 51.6%230 W · 216 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Under | 52c | 49.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 250 | 53.2%133 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 40c | 48.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…30f5backed Under | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +8.1wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 52c | 46.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3e…637cbacked Under | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +6.3wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 53c | 35.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 50c | 34.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 920 | 46%423 W · 497 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed Over | 49c | 31.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47fc…973cbacked Under | 51c | 31.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Under | 55c | 31.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 412 | 49.5%204 W · 208 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b04…403fbacked Over | 48c | 29.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Over | 52c | 29.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f8…99d0backed Under | 50c | 29.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Under | 45c | 26.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…fbeebacked Under | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 53c | 24.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Over | 46c | 22.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 99 | 45.5%45 W · 54 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…5ed1backed Under | 50c | 22.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 242 | 63.6%154 W · 88 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07b4…6855backed Under | 79c | 18.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…05a6backed Under | 60c | 18.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5this page
- Athletics vs. Houston AstrosHouston Astros won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 4.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Houston AstrosNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.