TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,215
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,022

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,215 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7f29…f03dbacked Over37c2,548$943 inLost-$942.7647545.9%218 W · 257 L-13.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Under63c2,160$1,361 inWon+$799.21,90953.5%1,021 W · 888 L+29.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under79c1,600$1,268 inWon+$3328,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over23c1,201$273 inLost-$273.382,96948.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over37c950.15$352 inLost-$351.7211,35652.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L+209.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Over7c590$40 inLost-$39.871,87940.6%763 W · 1,116 L-39.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over5c500$25 inLost-$258,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under57c490$279 inWon+$210.71,79643.8%786 W · 1,010 L-33.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed Under63c399$251 inWon+$147.631,77749.5%880 W · 897 L+25.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Under77c361.62$277 inWon+$84.692,01251.2%1,031 W · 981 L+43.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under54c349.96$189 inWon+$160.831,91153.1%1,014 W · 897 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked Over8c272.83$21 inLost-$21.021,05644.3%468 W · 588 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Under57c221.98$127 inWon+$95.028,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x021a…d3aebacked Over31c209.52$65 inLost-$64.954422.7%10 W · 34 L-8.6wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-52%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x796f…00f6backed Under63c200$126 inWon+$7427244.9%122 W · 150 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Over40c114.08$46 inLost-$45.6347549.7%236 W · 239 L+17.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Over40c114.08$46 inLost-$45.6354651.3%280 W · 266 L+29.8wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Over22c109.33$24 inLost-$24.482,14750.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L+27.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb77…1c78backed Over40c92.23$37 inLost-$36.8927646.7%129 W · 147 L+10.8wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Over36c65$23 inLost-$23.41,38549.5%685 W · 700 L-4.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1262…056fbacked Over38c44$17 inLost-$16.7227348%131 W · 142 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23df…640abacked Over48c26.42$13 inLost-$12.5640048.5%194 W · 206 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Under73c24.14$18 inWon+$6.5679955.9%447 W · 352 L+21.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4cd…c041backed Under64c20.62$13 inWon+$7.3225053.2%133 W · 117 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60d0…2e36backed Under55c18.22$10 inWon+$8.1220552.7%108 W · 97 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.