MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Houston Astros
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4468cb4f68a34fd6d0e5a4ec203031a02c758e6289b2d7c2cd4862c0381f5f08
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,998
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,342
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,998 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked No | 52c | 1,757$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$838.79 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3234…8b1abacked Yes | 49c | 1,545$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.05 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed No | 51c | 1,487$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.58 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 48c | 1,275$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.83 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 53c | 497.28$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.08 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x734e…edbdbacked Yes | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1691…1e24backed No | 43c | 401$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.07 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d0…712dbacked No | 52c | 380$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.4 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47f6…b051backed Yes | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 173 | 46.2%80 W · 93 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 47c | 106$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 36c | 93.58$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.64 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 51c | 50.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 47c | 47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 213 | 43.2%92 W · 121 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Yes | 59c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Houston Astrosthis page
- Athletics vs. Houston AstrosHouston Astros won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 4.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Houston Astros won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.