MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9efc26494b93c5e70fb9038479db8c8631ab9c1538688ce4f10f519f9985df3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,851
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,923
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,851 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 56c | 17,922$9,972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,971.62 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 45c | 10,677$4,794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,882.79 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 56c | 6,021$3,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,345.84 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Under | 44c | 5,900$2,596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,304 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 3,521$1,877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,643.96 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 34c | 2,689$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$925.68 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Under | 45c | 1,315$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.43 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Under | 44c | 1,258$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.09 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 78c | 909.56$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.04 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 56c | 888$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.28 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 44c | 582.33$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.28 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…92d3backed Under | 57c | 550$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.5 | 127 | 59.1%75 W · 52 L | +9.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb88a…f6adbacked Under | 44c | 528$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.68 | 287 | 53.3%153 W · 134 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 41c | 490$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.1 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…de15backed Under | 45c | 487.29$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.99 | 171 | 60.8%104 W · 67 L | +11.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5633…59bcbacked Under | 44c | 419$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.64 | 279 | 52%145 W · 134 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 44c | 288$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.28 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Under | 44c | 272.95$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.9 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca3…9613backed Under | 74c | 264.89$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.57 | 228 | 67.1%153 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 78c | 256.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.48 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Over | 57c | 214.54$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.88 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 29c | 199$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.33 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 55c | 182.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.28 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 27c | 166.96$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.08 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 45c | 103.41$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.96 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Under | 79c | 99.06$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 54c | 89$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.28 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Under | 49c | 76.05$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.49 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 55c | 76.04$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.44 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…68b6backed Under | 43c | 68.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.03 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 73c | 67.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Over | 49c | 65.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked Under | 43c | 63.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 127 | 52%66 W · 61 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 68c | 59.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 42c | 59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.22 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 45c | 52.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.09 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…e5b4backed Under | 44c | 48.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 446 | 51.6%230 W · 216 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 44c | 45.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 45c | 44.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 44c | 43.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Over | 42c | 42.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Under | 47c | 41.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 250 | 53.2%133 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 53c | 37.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f8…99d0backed Under | 44c | 33.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 49c | 24.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x546a…1988backed Under | 44c | 24.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Under | 46c | 22.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 412 | 49.5%204 W · 208 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b4…6855backed Under | 72c | 20.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5this page
- Athletics vs. Houston AstrosHouston Astros won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 4.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Houston AstrosNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.