MLB · resolved market
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5cde86c53fa3eaeda402893a85554b6bb3ae69a9fc3112f05424ba8479171387
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Houston Astros, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,938
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,869
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,938 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Houston Astros | 49c | 2,291$1,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,168.55 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2064…240dbacked Houston Astros | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Athletics | 49c | 1,945$961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960.63 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Athletics | 52c | 1,154$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.78 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Athletics | 31c | 931.75$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.91 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Houston Astros | 67c | 675.85$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.83 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Athletics | 42c | 490$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.8 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Athletics | 6c | 400.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Athletics | 5c | 311.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Athletics | 52c | 250$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Athletics | 54c | 200.24$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.29 | 1,445 | 50%723 W · 722 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Houston Astros | 65c | 199$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.5 | 282 | 45.7%129 W · 153 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Athletics | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 667 | 48.7%325 W · 342 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Athletics | 53c | 110$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.15 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd60…3927backed Houston Astros | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Houston Astros | 42c | 102$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.16 | 1,947 | 53.1%1,033 W · 914 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36cf…d3aebacked Houston Astros | 58c | 99.98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.99 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Athletics | 40c | 88.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked Athletics | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 308 | 48.1%148 W · 160 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Athletics | 56c | 87$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.67 | 925 | 54.1%500 W · 425 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Athletics | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Athletics | 58c | 60.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Athletics | 57c | 58.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 616 | 46.4%286 W · 330 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Athletics | 38c | 57.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 356 | 58.1%207 W · 149 L | +26.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41cf…8268backed Houston Astros | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Houston Astros | 46c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 282 | 56.4%159 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a89…eddabacked Athletics | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Houston Astros | 44c | 34.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb3…4a24backed Houston Astros | 44c | 31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Houston Astros | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 671 | 52.5%352 W · 319 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Houston Astros | 45c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 390 | 49%191 W · 199 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Houston Astros | 54c | 24.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 416 | 48.8%203 W · 213 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)this page
- Athletics vs. Houston AstrosHouston Astros won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 4.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Houston AstrosNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.