TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Cleveland Guardiansof San Diego Padres, Cleveland Guardians
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,150
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,179

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,150 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x16bb…8492backed San Diego Padres36c1,007$363 inLost-$362.6186548.7%421 W · 444 L-8.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Cleveland Guardians64c672.99$431 inWon+$242.286,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87f7…8f45backed Cleveland Guardians79c661.66$521 inWon+$140.446444.4%206 W · 258 L-18.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed San Diego Padres21c651$136 inLost-$136.258,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked San Diego Padres11c520.55$59 inLost-$58.671,05644.3%468 W · 588 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Cleveland Guardians68c357.08$243 inWon+$113.6411,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc50…df9bbacked Cleveland Guardians65c200$130 inWon+$704360.5%26 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b0f…b7aebacked San Diego Padres33c177$58 inLost-$57.6952638.4%202 W · 324 L+1.5wins0.00per pick38cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Cleveland Guardians64c158$101 inWon+$56.888,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed San Diego Padres22c136.55$30 inLost-$303,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed San Diego Padres35c100$35 inLost-$3578854.6%430 W · 358 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed Cleveland Guardians63c96.05$61 inWon+$35.541,77749.5%880 W · 897 L+25.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Cleveland Guardians68c92$63 inWon+$29.4458746%270 W · 317 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbf7…c485backed San Diego Padres37c89.19$33 inLost-$336342.9%27 W · 36 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x118c…ff9fbacked Cleveland Guardians64c80$51 inWon+$28.8850%4 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Cleveland Guardians64c60$39 inWon+$21.42,37649.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked San Diego Padres31c59.24$18 inLost-$18.152,96948.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbe2…6158backed Cleveland Guardians69c57.97$40 inWon+$17.9746659.7%278 W · 188 L+1.9wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed San Diego Padres35c50$18 inLost-$17.52,29649.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d10…940abacked San Diego Padres36c45.44$16 inLost-$16.361,01447.7%484 W · 530 L-28.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Cleveland Guardians64c34.26$22 inWon+$12.332,94547.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L+3.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.