MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa95407f72bf658a44a7b11152073ccf29b96d8b675b056f1ac637e7813206b56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Cleveland Guardians, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,419
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,294
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,419 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Diego Padres | 65c | 10,490$6,829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,829.33 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee0b…e6d4backed Cleveland Guardians | 34c | 5,134$1,746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,388.44 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cleveland Guardians | 34c | 1,658$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,095.61 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 1,398$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$895.01 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Cleveland Guardians | 34c | 1,274$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840.97 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf1…b5afbacked Cleveland Guardians | 34c | 1,129$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.33 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 590.65$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.92 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked San Diego Padres | 59c | 503.47$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.05 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed San Diego Padres | 67c | 294$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.98 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…92d3backed Cleveland Guardians | 42c | 249.89$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.94 | 134 | 58.2%78 W · 56 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Cleveland Guardians | 33c | 238.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.13 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Diego Padres | 65c | 184$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.6 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed San Diego Padres | 57c | 166$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.62 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 149.63$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.69 | 799 | 43.2%345 W · 454 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 140$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked San Diego Padres | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 999 | 47.5%475 W · 524 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked San Diego Padres | 59c | 98.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.91 | 616 | 46.4%286 W · 330 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed San Diego Padres | 66c | 96.69$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.68 | 527 | 52.2%275 W · 252 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed San Diego Padres | 24c | 88.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 182 | 44.5%81 W · 101 L | -14.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked San Diego Padres | 66c | 78$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Cleveland Guardians | 34c | 77$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.82 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x888a…2a3cbacked San Diego Padres | 67c | 73.13$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked San Diego Padres | 62c | 54.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked San Diego Padres | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed San Diego Padres | 58c | 49.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 508 | 56.9%289 W · 219 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed San Diego Padres | 65c | 46.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 1,481 | 63.5%940 W · 541 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x360a…1098backed Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07f1…3b8ebacked San Diego Padres | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x657c…66a3backed Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc020…5edbbacked San Diego Padres | 66c | 23.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 257 | 52.9%136 W · 121 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed San Diego Padres | 66c | 21.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 1,278 | 57%728 W · 550 L | +33.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…eebbbacked San Diego Padres | 54c | 20.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland GuardiansYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.