MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0a560a668060975da96c59c6e83d900ecad303121f78fc5b8dfa05719eaa0c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $82,145
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $119,152
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,145 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 52c | 37,776$19,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,156.13 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 48c | 29,378$14,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,140.67 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 58c | 3,547$2,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,040.08 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 49c | 2,776$1,353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,353.49 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 48c | 1,974$947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$947.33 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 54c | 1,088$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.96 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 42c | 471.5$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.24 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 49c | 360.45$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.73 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 47c | 346.58$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.24 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 34c | 296$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.36 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 46c | 294.98$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.99 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 42c | 218.21$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.56 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x656a…6077backed Over | 55c | 201.45$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.08 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…92d3backed Over | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 127 | 59.1%75 W · 52 L | +9.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 26c | 200$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.1 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 58c | 189.22$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.75 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 7c | 160.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 43c | 127.93$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.92 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Over | 40c | 118.35$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.34 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 58c | 112.17$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.06 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Over | 64c | 109$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.76 | 303 | 40.6%123 W · 180 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed Over | 50c | 92.7$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.96 | 182 | 44.5%81 W · 101 L | -14.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 36c | 82$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 43c | 44.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 43c | 44.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…b627backed Over | 55c | 35.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Under | 46c | 35.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked Under | 40c | 34.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 59c | 33.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 41c | 26.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 59c | 25.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 52c | 23.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 46c | 22.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland GuardiansYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.