MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2bc9921c81f1b37f17947f2fbe6c6b4783004b60076d9877deff4b4a362ad6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,049
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,783
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,049 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb727…2a9dbacked Under | 50c | 13,681$6,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,840.47 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30c1…9f91backed Over | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 123 | 43.1%53 W · 70 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 50c | 4,982$2,489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,489.47 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 52c | 3,349$1,757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,592.46 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 47c | 3,164$1,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,492.59 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 50c | 2,914$1,457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,457 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 44c | 2,669$1,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,176.87 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 42c | 2,448$1,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,418.29 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…92d3backed Over | 59c | 2,355$1,389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,389.21 | 127 | 59.1%75 W · 52 L | +9.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 50c | 2,266$1,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,136.41 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Under | 50c | 1,266$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee0…d6a6backed Under | 72c | 1,217$877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.88 | 114 | 64%73 W · 41 L | +12.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x656a…6077backed Over | 50c | 1,180$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.51 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 50c | 1,095$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.27 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 50c | 1,029$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.27 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 50c | 796.2$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.1 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Under | 50c | 541.78$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.89 | 220 | 50.5%111 W · 109 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 50c | 461.86$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.93 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 32c | 283.82$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.74 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 50c | 276$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.54 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 51c | 257.36$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.21 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 50c | 253.48$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.74 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 43c | 245$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.7 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 49c | 239$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.89 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 45c | 199$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.18 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 44c | 194.09$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.8 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a7…ca43backed Over | 50c | 124$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 53c | 122.19$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.26 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 50c | 115.53$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.77 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 49c | 112.26$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.25 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 46c | 107.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…7017backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf15…a1febacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 151 | 47.7%72 W · 79 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b94…09dcbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed Under | 46c | 98.85$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.17 | 182 | 44.5%81 W · 101 L | -14.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 48c | 89.35$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.43 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Under | 55c | 84.74$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.37 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Under | 76c | 71.71$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Under | 43c | 71$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.47 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Under | 50c | 65.29$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.32 | 476 | 52.9%252 W · 224 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked Under | 51c | 64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 127 | 52%66 W · 61 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f20…5d31backed Under | 50c | 55.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 129 | 46.5%60 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 53c | 54.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 873 | 52.7%460 W · 413 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 51c | 53.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 303 | 40.6%123 W · 180 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Under | 50c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 223 | 52.5%117 W · 106 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…68b6backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 47c | 36.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Under | 50c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe935…3991backed Under | 53c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Under | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Over | 50c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 253 | 55.7%141 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 50c | 30.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 43c | 29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b04…403fbacked Under | 50c | 27.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f8…99d0backed Under | 54c | 27.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked Under | 41c | 25.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab3…3044backed Over | 49c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07b4…6855backed Under | 63c | 22.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…5862backed Over | 54c | 21.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe90f…a908backed Over | 50c | 20.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 97 | 55.7%54 W · 43 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58d3…5651backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…5df1backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland GuardiansYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.