MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36f18b0dba246f7322d68dc51b766f2e7d23572fd17d7a80976e98f35db3d8be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Cleveland Guardians, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,060
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,060
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,060 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed San Diego Padres | 49c | 3,014$1,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,475.44 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cleveland Guardians | 51c | 2,882$1,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,419.97 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Cleveland Guardians | 29c | 578.81$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.99 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cleveland Guardians | 75c | 430.68$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.67 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Diego Padres | 69c | 255$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.08 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed San Diego Padres | 49c | 118.85$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.85 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed San Diego Padres | 66c | 104$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.64 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked San Diego Padres | 38c | 93.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 587 | 46%270 W · 317 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked San Diego Padres | 49c | 82.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.33 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed San Diego Padres | 76c | 82.25$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.51 | 173 | 46.2%80 W · 93 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed Cleveland Guardians | 52c | 73.87$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.46 | 182 | 44.5%81 W · 101 L | -14.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 49c | 61.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.54 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Cleveland Guardians | 56c | 49.96$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f20…5d31backed San Diego Padres | 48c | 48.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 129 | 46.5%60 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Diego Padres | 75c | 47.26$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…c89bbacked San Diego Padres | 48c | 32.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 110 | 37.3%41 W · 69 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed San Diego Padres | 67c | 30.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed San Diego Padres | 49c | 30.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe935…3991backed San Diego Padres | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03f8…99d0backed San Diego Padres | 49c | 29.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland GuardiansYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.