MLB · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbdb006dd5fddf3554afe559f0520a4223951f59cdb294a8ea8daea13e1d11188
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Milwaukee Brewersof Los Angeles Dodgers, Milwaukee Brewers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,670
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,198
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,670 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 20c | 4,743$959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$958.65 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 31c | 2,090$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.18 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 21c | 1,259$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.42 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Milwaukee Brewers | 77c | 1,143$884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.83 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 36c | 930$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.8 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Milwaukee Brewers | 68c | 790$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.8 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 78c | 704.94$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.29 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 27c | 435.99$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.72 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 36c | 354.9$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.72 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 31c | 280.88$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.07 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 32c | 239.38$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.53 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…df9bbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 68c | 199.99$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 32c | 171.9$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a70…76b5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 61c | 145.3$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.72 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x251b…143cbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 69c | 145.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 217 | 53.9%117 W · 100 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd03…60fbbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 69c | 143.67$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.54 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…5a9ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +10.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 24c | 112.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 31c | 104.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5519…f7e1backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Milwaukee Brewers | 79c | 91$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 303 | 40.6%123 W · 180 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 19c | 80.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 18c | 57.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 20c | 56.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 31c | 55.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 250 | 53.2%133 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 78c | 44.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc37…2784backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 33c | 33.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07f1…3b8ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 63c | 31.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Milwaukee Brewers | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Milwaukee Brewers | 68c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 68c | 16.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 4.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles DodgersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.