MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b165cf3fd87b43f276dda28e44e1e92cbe9bc095c309d6701ec639c7f4d30df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,151
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,196
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,151 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe1a2…14b8backed No | 52c | 9,668$5,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,027.32 | 182 | 41.2%75 W · 107 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 48c | 4,054$1,946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,108.08 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Yes | 48c | 3,739$1,792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,946.84 | 326 | 52.5%171 W · 155 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66b2…0fdfbacked No | 53c | 1,100$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…9615backed Yes | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 96 | 55.2%53 W · 43 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 50c | 650$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.51 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 52c | 609.64$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.66 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 48c | 400$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30c1…9f91backed Yes | 47c | 392.42$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.98 | 123 | 43.1%53 W · 70 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Yes | 48c | 390$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.8 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 50c | 354.52$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.03 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x776f…32b7backed No | 53c | 283.02$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 49c | 225.46$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.48 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked No | 53c | 211$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.61 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b25…edc5backed No | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -7.3wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Yes | 47c | 134$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.02 | 450 | 45.8%206 W · 244 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 50c | 111$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe200…1b78backed No | 18c | 110$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +236.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Yes | 74c | 101.06$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea39…9d34backed No | 65c | 99.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.99 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 50c | 87$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Yes | 48c | 76.07$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.56 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Yes | 35c | 51.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.36 | 557 | 58%323 W · 234 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e9…b2e0backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x992d…75b7backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 51c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Yes | 35c | 33.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed No | 49c | 23.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 707 | 44.7%316 W · 391 L | -22.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6540backed No | 52c | 19.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 148 | 48.6%72 W · 76 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgersthis page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 4.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.